There could be a spike in coronavirus cases after Christmas, even with the early lockdown, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said the stay-at-home rule was introduced from midnight "partly" as a result of a new variant of the virus.
The variant is "seeded" in all parts of Wales, including the north, he said.
Opposition leaders are calling for the Welsh Parliament to be recalled during recess.
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price said announcing the stricter Covid restrictions sooner would have stopped people rushing to the shops on Saturday night.
All of Wales is in the highest level of lockdown - level four - with all but essential shops closed, and people being told to "stay home" to save lives.
Meeting up is now limited to two households and a single person support bubble on Christmas Day only.
Pressure on the NHS has exceeded the Welsh Government's worst case scenario and without action there will be an "even bigger spike in cases", Mr Gething said.
"It would [the NHS] be in danger of not being able to cope if we don't act - and there's still a risk even now," he said.
Further cases were "baked in" due to people mixing in the run up to lockdown, he told BBC Radio Wales' Sunday Supplement.
"Over the next few weeks we know that there'll be a problem," he said.
"We know that despite the rules some people will still mix."
Mr Gething said the new variant was "in every part of Wales, including right across north Wales", adding that ministers had been shown evidence that it was "much more infectious".
"We've seen cases rise significantly in the south," he said.
Plaid Cymru leader Mr Price told the Dewi Llwyd programme on BBC Radio Cymru he had urged the first minister on Wednesday to bring in "stricter restrictions in those areas with high infection rates before Christmas anyway, even before this new information on the new variant of the virus".
Conservative shadow health minister Andrew RT Davies said there was "colossal" pressure on the NHS, but said ministers needed to provide evidence to support their actions.
"I don't doubt the sincerity of ministers at all, but I do believe we need to see the evidence as a matter of urgency," he said.
"I woke up this morning and went into my inbox and it is just full of bewildered people at the speed of what has exactly happened."
What are the lockdown rules?
- Gyms, hairdressers, beauty salons and non-essential shops closed at the end of trading on Saturday
- Bars and restaurants will only be able to open for takeaways
- People will only be allowed to travel for "essential reasons"
- People cannot mix with anyone they do not live with, with only single person households allowed to form an exclusive support bubble with one other household
- The exception is for Christmas Day when two households can meet, along with a single person support bubble
- Places of worship are allowed to be open to the public
- Weddings and funerals can take place, but receptions and wakes are not allowed
- Moving homes is still allowed, if the moving date cannot be switched
- Driving lessons cannot take place during lockdown and booked theory tests will need to be rearranged
- The Welsh Government has published more guidance here
'Devastating' for businesses
Ben Francis, from the Federation of Small Businesses in Wales, acknowledged concern about the number of Covid cases, but he said the lockdown was "nothing short of devastating" for businesses.
"This situation creates a new level of urgency for businesses to receive funding from Welsh Government upon which they will be heavily reliant," he said.
Hairdresser and mother-of-three Kristy Wood said she reopened her salon, Kristy's Hair Design Studio in Newport, after the announcement on Saturday afternoon to try to safely fit in several clients before closing the doors before the midnight lockdown.
"I was calling clients and put out a notice on Facebook - most were in their pyjamas watching the Strictly final with a glass of wine!" she said.
"If we could have been told the day before, or earlier that afternoon, we could have planned more. It was such short notice, so we were thrown in the deep end. It could have been done in a better way."
She added it seemed unfair that businesses had made so much effort to adhere to safety guidelines, while supermarkets seemed less restricted.
"We take clients' temperatures at the door, do track and trace, sanitise, wear PPE - masks, visors, aprons and gloves," she added.
"It's frustrating that we've put all this in place but you go into a supermarket and they don't do it. It really does feel unfair."
Meanwhile, father-of-two Jonathan Barnes, 40, said he faced the prospect of being alone over Christmas, unable to travel from Suffolk to Pembrokeshire to join his family due to the coronavirus rules.
What is the Covid case rate?
The Covid-19 case rate for Wales has jumped to 613.3 cases per 100,000 for the past seven days, up from 530.2 on Thursday.
The seven day rolling case rate remains highest in Merthyr Tydfil at 1,225, followed by Bridgend on 1,118 and Blaenau Gwent on 981.9.
The Welsh Government held an emergency cabinet meeting on Saturday amid "serious concerns" over the new variant of coronavirus.
The World Health Organization has said it is in "close contact" with UK officials over its emergence, although it is not believed to be more deadly.
In a statement, Wales chief medical officer Dr Frank Atherton said "hospital admissions have increased markedly in areas with higher levels of the variant".
How will the rules be policed?
Coronavirus restrictions are being enforced by local authority enforcement officers and the police, with £60 fixed penalty notices issued for the first offence rising to a maximum of £1,920.
The Welsh Government has spoken to councils and the police "because we do want to see more enforcement take place", Mr Gething said.
But officers in Wales say they have been called on to enforce sometimes "unpopular" Covid rules.
A stringent new Covid lockdown has also come into force in London and parts of east and south-east England.
Covid restrictions will only be relaxed on Christmas Day in Scotland and its mainland will then be placed under the tightest restrictions from Boxing Day.
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- TESTING: How do I get a virus test?
- SYMPTOMS: What are they and how to guard against them?
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2020-12-20 12:57:00Z
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