Kamis, 30 September 2021

End of furlough: More than 700000 people may lose jobs, hours or earnings - The Times

More than 700,000 people may lose their jobs, hours or earnings with today’s end to the furlough scheme, analysis suggested as Rishi Sunak announced a £500 million fund to help struggling families deal with rising bills this winter.

Despite higher than expected growth figures between April and June announced by the Office for National Statistics, growth figures for the rest of the year are expected to be lower, and the Treasury’s decision to wind up the furlough scheme will add to economic pressures.

The coronavirus job retention scheme, announced in March 2020 as Britain went into national lockdown, ensured the payment of 9.7 billion hours of work, according to estimates by the New Economics Foundation (NEF). The scheme was initially scheduled to end on April

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2021-09-30 17:00:00Z
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Energy regulator Ofgem puts advisers on standby for emergency rescue role - Sky News

The energy regulator has put a firm of City advisers on standby for the emergency rescue of a major supplier amid the crisis which has engulfed the sector in recent weeks.

Sky News has learnt that Ofgem has retained Teneo to act as special administrator in the event that the customers of a failed energy company cannot be passed on to a rival through its Supplier of Last Resort (SOLR) system.

Energy company executives said that Teneo had been drafted in to advise Ofgem on the spate of collapses in the last fortnight, which have affected roughly 1.7 million British households.

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Building resiliency into the UK energy market

The need for a special administrator has yet to materialise, but there is an expectation in the industry that the failure of a larger supplier would require a special administrator to oversee it on a temporary basis.

Under a regime established in 2017, a special administrator would have an obligation to consider the interests of consumers as well as creditors, meaning that Teneo's role would differ from that of a conventional corporate insolvency.

This week, three more smaller suppliers - Igloo, Symbio and Enstroga - announced that they were ceasing to trade, with their 225,000 customers expected to be reassigned through the SOLR process in the coming days.

Last week, Octopus Energy and Shell Energy Retail were handed the customers of Avro Energy and Green Supplier respectively following their collapses.

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Further insolvencies are anticipated in the coming weeks.

Bulb Energy, which supplies roughly 1.7 million households, is working with advisers on raising fresh funding, with Sky News revealing last weekend that Octopus Energy was among the companies which have requested access to its financial information.

A spokeswoman for Ofgem declined to comment specifically on Teneo's work, but said: "Ofgem and government prepare for a wide range of scenarios and have long standing contingency plans in place for any situation as needed.

"These processes include speaking to a range of organisations."

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2021-09-30 09:23:11Z
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Is your Virgin Money branch closing? 31 sites axed - This is Money

Virgin Money has announced it is shutting 31 bank braches and axing around 112 jobs as it looks to move more of its operations online.

Among others, branches in Beverley, Blackburn, Lincoln, Macclesfield, Nuneaton, Whitby and Wick are all due to close.

Bosses said the move comes as more customers switched to online banking during the pandemic. 

Closures: Virgin Money has announced it is shutting 31 bank braches and axing around 112 jobs

The company said 28 of the 30 customer-facing branches closing were located less than a third of a mile away from the nearest post office, and the final two sites had a post office less than a mile away or another Virgin Money store nearby.

A further site in Gosforth was already a staff-only site and this will also close. 

It said: 'Customers can use Post Offices for day‐to-day banking, including cash deposits and withdrawals, cheque deposits and balance enquiries, as well as coin exchange.' 

Virgin Money branches closing

Here is a list of the Virgin Money bank branches set to close early in 2022:  

Airdrie
Grantham
Northallerton
Ashton-Under-Lyne
Keighley
Newcastle, Northumberland St
Banchory
Leeds, Horsforth
Nuneaton
Beverley
Leeds, White Rose
Oban
Blackburn
Lincoln
Portree
Broughty Ferry
Macclesfield
Selby
Chesterfield
Mexborough
Sheffield, Meadowhall
Cumbernauld
Milngavie
Stenhousemuir
East Kilbride, Princes Square
Musselburgh
Whitby
Galashiels
Nelson
 Wick

Source: Virgin Money UK 

Written notification will be sent to customers and posters will be displayed in each affected store at least three months before they close, providing details on the alternative ways customers can continue to manage their accounts, including nearest alternative stores, ATMs and Post Office counters.

The stores will shut their doors for the final time early next year and bosses said they hope to find alternative roles for affected staff. A total of 131 branches will remain.

But the company admitted not all workers will be able to stay, with around 112 full-time equivalent roles expected to be axed.

Fergus Murphy, group customer experience director at Virgin Money, said: 'As our customers change the way they want to bank with us and conduct fewer transactions in-store, we must continue to evolve the role of our stores into places where we showcase our products and bring our digital services to life.'

The group said the number of customers using bank branches for day-to-day transactions had been dwindling across the banking industry for a number of years, and this has been further accelerated by the pandemic.

Virgin Money added the decision on each site was based on location, usage, proximity to alternative stores and lease arrangements.

As a result of the closures, the group said it will take a £25million restructuring charge in the fourth quarter.

Critics to mass bank branch closures claim they hit the elderly and vulnerable hardest, leaving many forced to travel long distances to carry out basic banking tasks. 

Going: Virgin Money branches in Beverley, Blackburn, Lincoln, Macclesfield, Nuneaton, Whitby and Wick are all due to close

Virgin Money claimed it was also trying to give its staff greater flexibility around working patterns and location. It said the shift meant it would have 'lower office space requirements, with infrastructure and office hubs re-purposed to fit new ways of working.' 

The bank said it was also working to move its IT operations to cloud-based systems, to 'enable agile delivery, increasing the pace of change and delivering efficiency benefits over time.' 

Caren Evans, Unite national officer, said: 'Unite has serious concerns about the implications this branch closure decision has on staff and also the communities they currently serve. 

'The union is worried that there are approximately 24,000 customers based across these branches that are classed as vulnerable, all of whom will need to be directly contacted by the branch colleagues. This is a massive undertaking on an already pressurised network.'

According to consumer group Which?, 4,299 branches of banks and building societies have closed, or have been scheduled for closure; since January 2015, at a rate of around 50 every month. 

Which? said The NatWest Group, which comprises NatWest, Royal Bank of Scotland and Ulster Bank, shut 1,086 branches during this period. 

Lloyds Banking Group, made up of Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, shut down 680 sites. Barclays is the individual bank that has reduced its network the most, with 650 branches closed, or scheduled to, by the end of this year. 

In March, Santander announced it would close 111 branches up and down the country by the end of August this year.

The Spanish-owned lender said the 'majority' of branches being axed were under three miles from another Santander branch, with the furthest being five miles away.

It said that all of the 111 closing branches were within half a mile of at least two free-to-use cash machines.

Branches in New Malden, Marlow, Leatherhead, Sale, Surbiton, Twickenham and Wickford were just some of the swathes being shut.     

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2021-09-30 09:00:03Z
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Ministers admit jobs WILL be lost as furlough ends TODAY - Daily Mail

'At some point it had to end': Ministers admit jobs WILL be lost as furlough closes TODAY despite fears a MILLION are still reliant on handouts - but say there is 'support' and they should seek 'new opportunities'

  • Ministers admit some people face losing jobs as furlough finally ends tomorrow
  • Government says scheme had to end 'at some point' and there are 'opportunities'
  • Latest figures from July showed 1.6million jobs still being propped up by scheme
  • Experts warned only a 'trickle' of staff were being taken off furlough scheme  

Ministers have admitted jobs will be lost as the Government's furlough scheme finally ends today after 19 months.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke said the huge bailout - which has cost the taxpayer more than £68billion - 'has to end at some point'.

And he played down the risk of a deluge of unemployment, insisting there is 'support' and people should seek 'new opportunities'.   

The latest figures show that as of July 1.6million jobs were being propped up by furlough, which has been running since March last year. Experts have warned that around a million could still be reliant on the handouts. 

At its peak a third of all employees were being paid to stay at home in an unprecedented government move. 

But it is due to come to an end from midnight, with other support measures to follow. 

The latest figures showed 1.6million jobs were still being propped up by the furlough scheme at the end of July

The latest figures showed 1.6million jobs were still being propped up by the furlough scheme at the end of July 

Chief Secretary Simon Clarke said the huge bailout - which has cost the taxpayer more than £68billion - 'has to end at some point'

Chief Secretary Simon Clarke said the huge bailout - which has cost the taxpayer more than £68billion - 'has to end at some point'

One in ten jobs in Crawley were still on furlough at the end of July - leading to fears of unemployment spike

Up to a tenth of jobs in Crawley could be on the line as the furlough scheme ends.   

More than 5,000 employments were on furlough in the town as of the end of July, according to the latest stats.

That is roughly equivalent to 10 per cent of jobs in the area.

Although some are expected to have come off furlough over the past two months, the Sussex town - home to Gatwick Airport - is braced for a spike in unemployment. 

Crawley is already in the top 10 places with the highest share of people claiming unemployment related benefits. 

It has also seen the largest increase in the claimant count since March, with 5.5 per cent increase in dole handouts.

Unsurprisingly, transportation and Storage was the sector most affected, with 1,990 employees on furlough.  

In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Clarke said that job losses were 'part of the process' of recovery from the pandemic.

'Obviously there will be a variety of outcomes, I don't have an estimate with me today. There will be some job losses,' he told Sky News.

'Furlough has protected 11.6million jobs in total … at some point you have to end these emergency measures.

'People's jobs will be created just as some have very sadly been lost, that is part of the process of ending this crisis and going back to normal.'

Mr Clarke said: 'There is a lot of opportunity out there for people now. There's never an easy moment to end these measures.

'They've been hugely important but it is also time to recognise that we are now, thankfully, out of the teeth of this pandemic … and we're in a situation where normal opportunity is back out there for people to embrace.'

He added there would be a 'range' of options for those who would find themselves without work and that the unemployment rate had fallen seven months in a row.

'We never said we could protect every job … I think we need to be totally honest about this, the Covid pandemic has taken a toll on our economy, it's changed some things,' he said.

'My message to people would be there are these opportunities there.'

Furlough numbers dipped by 340,000 by the end of July - the first month that employers had to pay 10 per cent of the salaries. 

But experts have warned that only a 'trickle' are being taken off furlough and a million could still be reliant on the bailout.

HM Revenue & Customs figures showed 121,600 people between the ages of 18 and 34 were taken off the furlough scheme in June and July.   

Furlough launched in the early days of the pandemic as a way of ensuring that people could keep their jobs, and a portion of their income, even when the economy closed down.

For those who were unable to work from home, the scheme would pay them up to 80 per cent of their salaries.

However from the beginning of July employers had to contribute 10 per cent of their furloughed employees' salaries. This went up again to 20 per cent for August and September. 

Since launching 18 months ago, close to 12million jobs have been furloughed. The Government has paid a total of £68.5billion to furloughed employees.

Furlough levels remained the higher in London on July 31 than in other parts of the country, especially for men.

Eight London areas were among those with the highest furlough rates, at 9 per cent to 10 per cent.

Concerns have been raised about the number of workers over the age of 50 who are still furloughed.

More than 540,000 people in the age group were on furlough at the end of July, accounting for 35 per cent of the total, according to research.

Rest Less, which offers help and advice for older people, said the pandemic had 'devastated' the job market for older workers over the past two years.

Founder Stuart Lewis said the full impact might still to be felt, adding: 'With more than half a million people aged 50 or older still on furlough at the last count, we may well see hundreds of thousands of hardworking, experienced older workers enter redundancy and, ultimately, find themselves looking for a new job in the run-up to Christmas.

'The jobs market is polarised at the moment. On the one hand, we have record job vacancies and companies struggling to hire talent in key areas, for example HGV drivers and healthcare.

'On the other side, unemployment levels across many age groups have yet to recover and we are seeing huge falls in economic activity amongst midlifers.

'Much more can be done to help bridge these gaps through intensive retraining and accelerated assessment programmes.'

Rest Less said its research suggested long-term trends of employment growth among the over-50s has been reversed over the past two years.

Workers describe the 'emptiness' and 'lack of purpose' of being on furlough for up to 19 months - but how they used the time to start businesses and learn new skills

Charlotte Daniel, 28, has started learning Spanish and launched a business with her partner while on furlough

Charlotte Daniel, 28, has started learning Spanish and launched a business with her partner while on furlough 

Charlotte Daniel 28, data analyst for villa holiday company, Canterbury

Charlotte Daniel spent the majority of the past 18 months on furlough, and says it has been a mixture of emotions.

The 28-year-old data analyst described feeling 'emptiness, lack of purpose, loneliness' and a 'desire for progression'.  

'A year-and-a-half without career development at my age is hard,' she told the Guardian.  

Ms Daniel, from Canterbury, returned to work when she was offered a secondment but said it was a 'massive shock to the system' - particularly as she had to work 12 hours per day at home with 'terrible wifi'.  

She said she chose to go back on furlough - during which time she has picked up Spanish and bikini bodybuilding, which she now trains for five times a week.  

Her and her partner have also managed to launch a sportswear brand for women and bought their first house together.  

She added: 'It's been a mad 18 months but I've made the most of being furloughed. 

'Now I'm really looking forward to going back to my role next month and seeing my colleagues.'

Peter Advertisement 39, events administrator, Royal Northern College of Music, Manchester

Peter has been furloughed for 18 months and says he has had nothing to do since his job entails putting on concerts.  

The 39-year-old said he has been lucky as the Royal Northern College of Music in Manchester has been topping up his wages during that time.  

He said: 'But my mental health suffered significantly, I was under the constant stress of thinking my job could be discontinued at any moment...

'The only saving grace for me was that my first child was born at the beginning of the year. 

'I've bonded with him far more than if I'd only seen him at bedtime, and my partner and I have shared childcare. For that, I've been incredibly fortunate.'

Peter returned to his full time job this month with a hybrid deal of working from home and at the office - and with concerts scheduled for the autumn, things are looking up.  

John Cooper, 45, operations manager for a sports complex, East Sussex

For John Cooper, 45, who was furloughed in March 2020, the experience has been an 'eye-opener' and taught him the value of family. 

He took up a second job stacking supermarket shelves from 9pm to 1am, three times a week. 

'It was a godsend for my mental health,' he said, 'With the 80% salary from my normal job, it meant we were slightly better off in terms of household income.'

The operations manager was able to take up golf again after 20 years and he and his family moved out of town. 

He added: 'I play golf four or five times a week, I've made new friends and I've lost weight. I'm now free of debt for the first time in my life. 

'The pace of life has slowed down, and I've realised you don't have to be chasing things and doing things all the time.'

He has agreed to return to his original job on a part-time basis and will keep his supermarket job - meaning a 43-hour work week in total.     

Source: The Guardian

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2021-09-30 08:32:02Z
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Covid-19: UK furlough scheme ends but impact on NI workers unclear - BBC News

Bartender serving drinks
PACEMAKER

The UK's furlough scheme ends on Thursday but the impact on Northern Ireland workers is unclear.

The most recent official figures show that at the end of July, 36,000 people in Northern Ireland were still using the scheme.

The number has likely come down since then.

Furloughed workers will either retain a job with their employer, find new work, start claiming universal credit or leave the labour force.

The furlough scheme involved the government helping to pay the wages of people who could not work due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Last week, Stormont's Finance Minister Conor Murphy wrote to the chancellor urging him to extend the scheme beyond the end of September to help support businesses and workers.

The Sinn Féin minister said: "The approach taken by the British government is in contrast to the Irish government which is keeping its Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme in place until at least the end of December.

"This disparity of wage support across the island of Ireland could particularly impact businesses operating in border counties, especially in our hospitality and retail sectors who still continue to rely on these jobs support schemes, north and south."

Roger Pollen of the Federation of Small Businesses said the furlough scheme had been "a really effective tool for managing an extraordinary situation".

"The good thing is at least this scheme is coming to an end at a time when there are a lot of jobs available in the economy - that is probably unusual but is very welcome," he told BBC Radio Foyle.

But large parts of the economy remain under intense pressure, including the hospitality sector, he said.

Many businesses, he added, are concerned by the prospect of any further form of lockdown.

"I think many businesses are concerned by the noises coming from the executive because there is a complete lack of clarity as to what they are expecting for business," he said.

Damian Murphy, from the Association of NI Travel Agents, which represent about 700 people in the sector, said further support is needed for travel agencies.

"We're not in a position where we need all our staff back, nor are a lot of our agencies in a position where they can afford to make staff redundant," he told the BBC's Good Morning Ulster programme.

"A lot of people are in discussions about bringing staff back on reduced hours, delaying their comeback or even unpaid leave in some cases."

Mr Murphy said problems for travel agents are likely to persist until the end of the year.

Of the 36,000 people on furlough at the end of July, about half were on flexible furlough meaning they were able to work some of the time.

The largest number (6,400) of furloughed workers at that time was in the retail sector (6,400), followed by hospitality (5,500).

Covid-19 closure sign
Getty Images

The scheme was introduced in the spring of 2020 to stop people from being laid off by their employers during the lockdown.

The government paid 80% of the wages of people who could not work or whose employers could no longer afford to pay them - up to a monthly limit of £2,500.

In July, the government reduced its contribution to 70% of wages with employers paying 10%.

In August and September, the government contribution was 60% with the employer proportion rising to 20%.

The jobs market recovery has reduced fears that the end of the scheme will not lead to large scale job losses.

Company payrolls in Northern Ireland continued to increase even as the scheme began to taper and the number of redundancies being notified to the Department for the Economy has been low in recent months.

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'No furlough, no money'

Seaneen Monaghan

When the first Covid-19 lockdown descended 18 months ago, caterer Seaneen Monaghan was in the same boat as so many thousands of others - left to anxiously wonder about what may happen to her and her family at a time when neither she nor her husband could go to work.

"You didn't know where you stood at the time," she said.

"My husband and I, being in the same industry, we didn't know what we were going to do."

So when the furlough scheme was announced, it was a "blessing".

She said that "80% of our wage was better than not getting anything at all.

"We still had to cut back and we missed that extra 20% but we got there in the end."

For Mrs Monaghan's employers, the furlough scheme meant some certainty during some of the most unpredictable weeks of the pandemic.

But she remains concerned about what could yet come without the scheme.

"If there was another lockdown, this industry would be the first one to close - and if there's no furlough scheme, there's no money."

line

'Furlough was a godsend'

Diane Hill

For Diane Hill, who is director of business and organisation development at Now Group, which runs Loaf Catering, "furlough was a godsend for us".

"And then when we went to being able to bring people back but were were changing our business - doing outside catering, home deliveries - we couldn't project how that business would be," she said.

"So having flexi-furlough so that we could bring people back and give them assurances that we would continue and give them an income from ourselves, as well as being able to flex around their personal lives - it's the reason we're still here today."

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2021-09-30 08:24:51Z
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Covid-19: UK furlough scheme ends but impact on NI workers unclear - BBC News

Bartender serving drinks
PACEMAKER

The UK's furlough scheme ends on Thursday but the impact on Northern Ireland workers is unclear.

The most recent official figures show that at the end of July, 36,000 people in Northern Ireland were still using the scheme.

The number has likely come down since then.

Furloughed workers will either retain a job with their employer, find new work, start claiming universal credit or leave the labour force.

The furlough scheme involved the government helping to pay the wages of people who could not work due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Last week, Stormont's Finance Minister Conor Murphy wrote to the chancellor urging him to extend the scheme beyond the end of September to help support businesses and workers.

The Sinn Féin minister said: "The approach taken by the British government is in contrast to the Irish government which is keeping its Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme in place until at least the end of December.

"This disparity of wage support across the island of Ireland could particularly impact businesses operating in border counties, especially in our hospitality and retail sectors who still continue to rely on these jobs support schemes, north and south."

Damian Murphy, from the Association of NI Travel Agents, which represent about 700 people in the sector, said further support is needed for travel agencies.

"We're not in a position where we need all our staff back, nor are a lot of our agencies in a position where they can afford to make staff redundant," he told the BBC's Good Morning Ulster programme.

"A lot of people are in discussions about bringing staff back on reduced hours, delaying their comeback or even unpaid leave in some cases."

Mr Murphy said problems for travel agents are likely to persist until the end of the year.

Of the 36,000 people on furlough at the end of July, about half were on flexible furlough meaning they were able to work some of the time.

The largest number (6,400) of furloughed workers at that time was in the retail sector (6,400), followed by hospitality (5,500).

Covid-19 closure sign
Getty Images

The scheme was introduced in the spring of 2020 to stop people from being laid off by their employers during the lockdown.

The government paid 80% of the wages of people who could not work or whose employers could no longer afford to pay them - up to a monthly limit of £2,500.

In July, the government reduced its contribution to 70% of wages with employers paying 10%.

In August and September, the government contribution was 60% with the employer proportion rising to 20%.

The jobs market recovery has reduced fears that the end of the scheme will not lead to large scale job losses.

Company payrolls in Northern Ireland continued to increase even as the scheme began to taper and the number of redundancies being notified to the Department for the Economy has been low in recent months.

line

'No furlough, no money'

Seaneen Monaghan

When the first Covid-19 lockdown descended 18 months ago, caterer Seaneen Monaghan was in the same boat as so many thousands of others - left to anxiously wonder about what may happen to her and her family at a time when neither she nor her husband could go to work.

"You didn't know where you stood at the time," she said.

"My husband and I, being in the same industry, we didn't know what we were going to do."

So when the furlough scheme was announced, it was a "blessing".

She said that "80% of our wage was better than not getting anything at all.

"We still had to cut back and we missed that extra 20% but we got there in the end."

For Mrs Monaghan's employers, the furlough scheme meant some certainty during some of the most unpredictable weeks of the pandemic.

But she remains concerned about what could yet come without the scheme.

"If there was another lockdown, this industry would be the first one to close - and if there's no furlough scheme, there's no money."

line

'Furlough was a godsend'

Diane Hill

For Diane Hill, who is director of business and organisation development at Now Group, which runs Loaf Catering, "furlough was a godsend for us".

"And then when we went to being able to bring people back but were were changing our business - doing outside catering, home deliveries - we couldn't project how that business would be," she said.

"So having flexi-furlough so that we could bring people back and give them assurances that we would continue and give them an income from ourselves, as well as being able to flex around their personal lives - it's the reason we're still here today."

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2021-09-30 05:32:07Z
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UK economy's coronavirus collapse no longer measured as worst in 300 years - Sky News

The UK economy is no longer believed to have suffered its biggest contraction in three centuries last year, according to revised official figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 9.7% last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, a change from the previous estimate of 9.8%.

The contraction, caused by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic crushing economic activity, has been described as the worst since the great frost of 1709.

Shoppers on Regents Street, London, as England takes another step back towards normality with the further easing of lockdown restrictions. Picture date: Monday April 12, 2021.
Image: The second quarter of this year saw a spending splurge

But the latest figures put the 2020 collapse, to two decimal places, at 9.69%, just shy of the 9.71% plunge in 1921.

It means the annual GDP fall caused by the pandemic was the worst in 99 years - not 311.

The ONS said the revisions were the result of improvements to sources and methods including better data on the financial sector and removing some of the effects caused by price changes.

The revised figures also showed that the UK economy grew more strongly than previously thought in the second quarter of this year as consumers curbed their savings to fuel a spending splurge.

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GDP increased by 5.5% in the April-June period, according to the ONS, which had initially estimated growth of 4.8%.

It means that by the middle of this year, Britain was closer than previously thought to recovering the ground lost as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

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Government has a week to save Christmas

The ONS now thinks that by the second quarter, GDP was 3.3% below where it was at the end of 2019, having initially estimated a 4.4% shortfall.

More recent figures suggest that the recovery has since experienced a sharp slowdown after supply chain issues such as a lack of 100,000 HGV drivers and global chip shortages, as well as the "pingdemic" forcing workers to isolate, took their toll.

With inflation pressures also building - as oil and natural gas prices climb - at the same time, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned the recovery is facing "hard yards" ahead.

But the second quarter was boosted by a 7.9% rebound in household spending after the economy reopened in the spring, which represented four percentage points out of the 5.5% growth figure.

The household saving ratio fell sharply to 11.7%, down from 18.4% in the first quarter, which was the second highest on record.

Among the industries to gain from the spending spree were the hotel and restaurant sector, up 87.6%, and the wholesale and retail trade, up 13.1%, while hairdressing saw a rise of 20.4%.

The ONS said the increases reflected the reopening of the economy as well as the economic boost from the Euro 2020 football tournament.

Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "Overall, while the upward revisions to GDP are clearly welcome, Q2 was three months ago, and the recovery appears to have stagnated since.

"Even so, given that there is now thought to be less spare capacity in the economy that will only encourage the Bank of England to hike rates in the not too distant future."

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2021-09-30 07:41:15Z
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Rabu, 29 September 2021

COVID-19: Warning of redundancies as £70bn furlough scheme ends - Sky News

The government's coronavirus furlough scheme ends today after supporting millions of workers during the pandemic.

Ministers say the wages of more than 11 million jobs were subsidised for at least some of the scheme's duration, at a cost of about £70bn.

There is now uncertainty over the almost one million people still thought to be on the scheme at the end of September, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates.

Economists say there is likely to be a rise in unemployment due to new redundancies, despite the fact some may be able to find work in recovering sectors such as travel and hospitality.

Job vacancies in the UK have hit a record of more than a million, according to recent ONS data, with openings in the hospitality and transport sectors up more than 75% in three months.

But Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he still had "doubts" about whether the economy had recovered enough to re-employ all those coming off furlough.

The winding up of the scheme could hit some especially hard as it comes at the same time as the £20 Universal Credit uplift ends, and amid a background of rising energy bills.

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The Liberal Democrats have warned of a "tidal wave" of job losses and want furlough to continue for some sectors.

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'More redundancies' at travel firms as furlough ends - ABTA boss

In a letter to the chancellor, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Christine Jardine said furlough should be maintained for another six months for 10 industries particularly badly affected by the pandemic, such as air travel.

"The withdrawal of furlough risks having a devastating impact on countless families already facing a winter of soaring energy bills," said Ms Jardine.

"The government needs to rethink its approach or the country could face a Coronavirus Black Thursday."

The party says the extension would cost about £600m.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is also reportedly set to announce a programme of grants to help poorer households this winter.

The plan could see up to £500m distributed through local authorities, according to Bloomberg.

It would replace the COVID local support grant - which also ends on Thursday after helping people with food and bills during the pandemic.

The Treasury has not yet confirmed the reports.

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2021-09-30 03:28:09Z
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Changing China: How Beijing's crackdowns are impacting business - BBC News

The evergrande logo is seen in front of a Chinese flag
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Hardly a day has gone by in recent months without news of a fresh crackdown on one part of the Chinese economy or another.

The slew of announcements of tough new regulations and the stringent enforcement of existing rules have targeted many of the country's biggest companies.

As we explained in the first part of this series on the recent developments in China, these measures are part of President Xi Jinping's centrepiece policy initiative, known as "common prosperity".

The phrase is not a new one in China. It has been around since the 1950s, when it was used by the founding leader of the People's Republic of China Mao Zedong.

The sharp escalation of the term's use in the year that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) also celebrates its 100th anniversary has been seen as a signal that it is now central to government policy.

Key to the common prosperity policies are Beijing's attempts to narrow the huge wealth gap between the nation's richest and poorest citizens.

It is an issue that some would argue both endangers the rise of the world's second largest economy and poses an existential threat to the CCP.

These latest measures are seen by some as a way to rein in the billionaire owners of some of China's biggest companies to instead give customers and workers more of a say in how firms operate and distribute their earnings.

'Local moves with a global impact'

The ramping up of rhetoric from Beijing in recent months has seen action being taken against a dizzying array of Chinese business interests.

Everything from insurance agents, private tutoring firms, real estate developers and even companies planning to sell shares in the US have come under intense scrutiny.

The technology industry, in particular, has seen a deluge of action against it, including crackdowns on ecommerce firms, online finance services, social media platforms, gaming companies, cloud computing providers, ride-hailing apps and cryptocurrency miners and exchanges.

An advertisement for an English training school
Getty Images

These moves are, of course, having a major impact on both China's economy and society, and effects are also being felt around the world.

The country has long been seen as the factory of the world, as well as a major engine of global economic growth.

Now, the uncertainty around the regulation of businesses in China is making it difficult for companies from overseas to make decisions about potential investments.

Although another way of looking at it is that while there will be some short-term upheaval as the new rules are implemented, the reworked regulatory framework will remove uncertainty in the long-term. Presumably, that's the way the Chinese government views it, at least.

Crushing the mighty Ant

Even before it became fully apparent that Mr Xi was looking to reshape China's economy with his common prosperity policies, Beijing unleashed a shock and awe display of its firepower.

Less than a year ago, Jack Ma, the multi-billionaire founder of Alibaba who was known for his flamboyant appearances at dazzling corporate events, was just about to oversee the world's biggest ever stock market debut.

The initial public offering of Ant Group, Alibaba's financial affiliate and owner of China's largest digital payment platform Alipay, was set to rake in $34.4bn (£25.4bn).

It would have made Mr Ma Asia's richest person, but then he made a controversial speech criticising China's financial system.

Within days of the address the share sale was called off and the once-high-profile Mr Ma was not seen again in public until January the following year.

Jack Ma, founder of China's e-commerce giant Alibaba, dressed as Michael Jackson at a party celebrating the 18th anniversary of Alibaba Group in 2017.
Getty Images

Since then Alibaba has been hit with a record $2.8bn fine after a probe found that it had abused its market position for years. Ant has also announced a drastic restructuring plan for its business.

Whether or not the episode was officially part of the common prosperity initiative we can leave to the historians of the future.

What we can say for sure is that Mr Ma's spectacular fall from grace and the action taken against his vast business empire served as a powerful opening act to the drama that is now reaching into every corner of China's economy.

Teetering tower of debt

China Evergrande Group is another vast company that has found its fate intertwined with common prosperity policies.

Its core business is real estate development but the company also has interests in wealth management, electric cars and food and drink manufacturing. It even owns one of China's biggest football teams - Guangzhou FC.

It is run by a multi-billionaire, Hui Ka Yan, who unlike Jack Ma actually did, briefly, become Asia's richest person - back in 2017, according to Forbes.

In recent weeks the debt crisis engulfing Evergrande has rocked global financial markets.

On its way to becoming one of China's biggest real estate developers it racked up debts of more than $300bn.

Beijing now views heavily-indebted property firms as a threat to the economy, so Evergrande was exactly the sort of company it had in mind when it introduced measures to cut borrowing in the sector.

Now, without enough fresh infusions of borrowed money, the company is struggling to meet the repayments on its existing debts.

Under the common prosperity doctrine, authorities seem more likely to help buyers of Evergrande's properties and the customers of its wealth management business rather than the company itself and its other creditors like bond holders and banks.

This notion was supported just this week when China's central bank, without directly mentioning Evergrande, vowed to protect consumers exposed to the housing market.

That all adds up to a major headache for financial markets as the firm has seen more than 80% wiped off its stock market value in just the last six months.

A boss battle for gaming

When in early August a Chinese state media outlet called online games "spiritual opium" it was viewed as a red flag.

The news sent shares in gaming firms like Tencent and NetEase sharply lower as the industry braced itself for tough new curbs.

To no-one's surprise, later the same month authorities unveiled plans to further clamp down on the country's young gamers and impose tighter regulations on gaming platforms.

Under-18s were told that they would be allowed to play for only an hour on Fridays, weekends and holidays and that gaming would only be allowed between 8pm to 9pm.

A group of teenage Chinese boys playing mobile video game.
Edwin Tan

The new regulations mean that it will be up to the gaming companies to prevent children from breaking the rules, while authorities have said they will increase their scrutiny of the firms to ensure the limits are enforced.

If all of this sounds like the Chinese government must be running out of businesses to hit with new rules, Beijing has signalled that the crackdowns will continue for years to come.

Just last month, it published a new 10-point plan, which runs to the end of 2025, outlining tighter regulation of much of the economy.

What is not yet clear is just how radically these new rules and much stricter enforcement of existing ones will reshape the world's second largest economy.

The outcome of that is likely to have major ramifications for all of us, whether we live in China or not.

This is the second in a three-part series looking at China's changing role in the world.

Part three will explore the global implications of Beijing's transformation of how the country's businesses operate.

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2021-09-29 23:16:43Z
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