Retail sales slide as cost of living crisis and wet weather hit British shops

Jumat, 17 November 2023

Retail sales slide as cost of living crisis and wet weather hit British shops – business live - The Guardian

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Retail sales across Great Britain have dropped as consumers are hit by high borrowing costs and inflation, while bad weather drove shoppers away.

New data from the Office for National Statistics shows retail sales volumes fell by 0.3% in October, missing forecasts for a 0.3% rise – a warning sign for the UK economy.

That follows a revised 1.1% decline in September – worse than the 0.9% drop first estimated.

Retail sales volumes in October were at their lowest level since February 2021, during the Covid-19 pandemic, when there were “widespread and extensive restrictions to non-essential retail in England, Scotland and Wales”, the ONS reminds us.

On an annual basis, retail sales volumes slumped by 2.7% compared with October 2022. However, consumers had to spend 2.2% more than a year ago, to get less stuff, due to higher prices on the shelves.

The ONS reports that food stores sales volumes fell by 0.3% in October.

Non-food stores sales volumes fell by 0.2% in October 2023, with retailers suggesting that “cost of living, reduced footfall and the wet weather in the second half of the month contributed to the fall”.

Storm Babet brought heavy rain and strong winds to the UK in October, followed by Ciarán at the end of the month.

Online retailers saw a 0.8% rise in sales volumes (after a fall of 2.4% in September), suggesting shoppers turn to the internet rather than braving the blusterly outdoors.

This slowdown in demand highlights how high interest rates are hitting the economy, and could fuel concerns that the UK is teetering close to recession.

Yesterday, BoE policymaker Megan Greene said it was too early to think about rate cuts, and that borrowing costs will need to remain higher for longer to control inflation.

Also coming up today

The clock is ticking towards next week’s autumn statement, and we’re already getting hints about what Jeremy Hunt will announce.

The chancellor will target the decline in workforce participation, by depriving benefits from welfare claimants who “refuse” to engage with their jobcentre or take work offered to them.

Hunt’s also reportedly considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax.

Hunt may have some leeway for giveaways, due to improved public finances, and as the freeze in income tax thresholds drags more people into higher tax bands.

In the financial markets, investors are watching the oil price after it hit a four-month low last night.

Brent crude dropped $3.76, or 4.6%, to $77.42 a barrel, amid worries about global oil demand following weak economic data – including rising jobless claims and falling retail sales in the US.

The agenda

7am GMT: UK retail sales for October
8.30am GMT: European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde gives keynote speech at 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress
10am GMT: Eurozone inflation report (final estimate) for October
1.10pm GMT: Bank of England deputy governor )Dave Ramsden gives keynote speech at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference
1.30pm GMT: US housing starts and building permits data for October

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Various traditionally made sourdough breads.

Today’s retail sales report also shows that shoppers are shunning specialist food stores in favour of supermarkets, in the cost of living squeeze.

Supermarkets reported an increase in sales volumes of 0.2% in October, while specialist food stores such as butchers and bakers reported that sales volumes fell by 4.2%.

Alcohol and tobacco stores were hit by a 10.4% drop in sales volumes

Feedback from these retailers suggested that consumers were buying cheaper products and prioritising important items, the ONS says.

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, says this is due to middle-income households being squeezed by rising mortgage costs.

The question at hand is are we saving up our cash, squirrelling it away in order to make the most of those big promotional days like Black Friday, or have price pressures pushed people to rethink Christmas plans entirely?

“What is particularly interesting is the food sector. Even here spending is down but it’s where that spend has fallen which alludes to the impact rising mortgage costs are having on middle income families.

“Supermarkets which offer value brands and own label deals maintained a bit of growth, but speciality stores like butchers and artisan bakers saw trade drop off.

“Little luxuries are an affordable ray of sunshine, but everyday sustenance is another thing entirely and it’s hard to justify an ancient grain loaf when a couple of slices from a pre-packaged one does the job at a fraction of the price.

“And posh alcohol makers like LVMH have already noted that sales have fallen away as drinkers plump for cheaper labels.

Elsewhere this morning, lender Nationwide has reported a rise in mortgage borrowers falling into arrears.

In its latest half-year report, Nationwide says that 0.38% of its residential mortgage accounts were at least three months in arrears at the end of September.

That’s up from 0.32% at the end of April.

Bank of England data earlier this month also showed a rise in arrears, as increases in interest rates left some borrowers unable to service their loans.

Nationwide says:

Arrears levels have increased slightly but remain low; however higher interest rates, continued inflationary pressures and the uncertain economic outlook remain key risks.

Nationwide (which recently launched a new ad campaign with Dominic West playing an unpleasant rival bank boss) also reports that its credit impairment charges have halved over the last year, to £54m, down from £108m in the first half of the 2022-23 financial year.

Nationwide’s CEO, Debbie Crosbie, warns that the economic outlook remains uncertain and cost of living challenges persist, adding:

Encouragingly, economic activity, while still weak by historical standards, has held up better than expected, and there are signs that cost of living pressures are starting to ease.

However, conditions for households are likely to remain challenging in the near term, as the effect of previous interest rate increases feeds through and labour market conditions soften.

Crosbie adds that UK interest rate are now “at or close to” their peak, adding:

As more households adjust their expenditure priorities in the higher interest rate environment, we will continue to support those borrowers who face payment difficulties.

The 2.7% year-on-year drop in retail sales across Britain in October is a disappointing start to the Golden Quarter.

The final three months of the year, which includes Halloween, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as well as Diwali, Hanukkah and Christmas, is a crucial spending opportunity for retailers.

Samantha Phillips, Partner at McKinsey & Co. says:

“Consumers held onto the purse strings in October. Despite CPI inflation continuing to drop, it’s a disappointing start to the golden quarter which may reflect the generally low level of consumer sentiment.

It’s potentially also a sign of shoppers holding out for Black Friday bargains and other festive promotions.

“Despite possible opportunities for celebration from the Rugby World Cup and Halloween parties, there was a decline in food and drink volumes. While supermarkets have seen slight volume increases, which could be partly due to the slowing rate of grocery inflation, consumers held back from shopping for more expensive products from specialist stores.

The cost of living continues to bite, with wet weather in the second half of the month certainly not helping to drive shoppers to the high streets either.

So says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, adding:

Consumers appear to be holding off from unnecessary spending, in savings mode, preparing for the expensive festive season ahead.

Looking ahead, according to analysis from GlobalData, shoppers are expected to buy fewer and cheaper items this Christmas, another headwind for retailers during the most important spending period of the year.

Retailers will be pinning their hopes on a successful Black Friday / Cyber Monday spending spree with big discounts likely to be on offer at a time when consumers are highly price sensitive.”

Consumers also cut back on petrol and diesel last month, suggesting higher prices deterred people from making some journeys.

Today’s retail sales report shows that automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 2.0% in October.

In the three months to October, sales volumes fell by 0.7% when compared with the previous three months, which “may be affected by increasing fuel prices”, the ONS suggests.

Today’s retail sales slide comes just two days after we learned that inflation slowed during October, from 6.7% to 4.6%.

Despite much trumpeting about the government hitting its inflation pledge, it’s clear that households are still feeling the squeeze from higher prices.

Aled Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank, says:

“The rising cost of living remains a drag on consumers’ discretionary incomes. Households continue to prioritise essential spending, particularly as falling winter temperatures push energy use up and high levels of inflation prevent material downturns in the prices of goods.

“Retailers will now be looking to strike the balance of getting staffing levels right while also being mindful that an early sales offering might not get the tills ringing as loudly as they’d like, as consumers navigate financial challenges elsewhere. Those that get it right could be toasting a successful end to what has been a challenging year.”

Phil Monkhouse, head of sales at global financial services firm Ebury, blames higher interest rates for the retail sales tumble in October, saying:

“The Bank of England’s attempts to whittle down inflation back to its target of 2% is perhaps finally feeding through into consumers’ pockets with this month’s data reinforcing September’s cliff-face drop [a 1.1% fall].”

Shoppers are turning a blind eye to Christmas festivities, he suspects, as they prioritise winter heating costs and mortgage repayments.

Today’s retail sales report also shows the painful impact of inflation over the last few years.

When compared with their pre-Covid-19 pandemic level in February 2020, total retail sales were 16.9% higher in value terms, but volumes were 3.1% lower.

In other worse, people have spent almost 17% more in October than in the last month before the first lockdown, but took home over 3% fewer items.

October was “another poor month” for household goods stores and clothing retailers.

So explains Heather Bovill, deputy director for surveys and economic indicators at the Office for National Statistics.