Jumat, 21 Oktober 2022

UK economy hit as people shop less than pre-Covid - BBC

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Official figures show a gloomy picture for the UK economy with government borrowing up and people shopping less than before the coronavirus pandemic.

Retail sales volumes fell more than expected by 1.4% last month, continuing their slide from August.

Meanwhile, government borrowing rose to its second highest September on record.

"Consumers are now buying less than before the pandemic," Darren Morgan, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which released the figures, said.

He added: "Retailers told us that the fall in September was partly because many stores were closed for the Queen's funeral, but also because of continued price pressures leading consumers to be careful about spending."

It comes as the cost of living crisis continues to squeeze household budgets.

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Inflation - the rate at which UK prices rise - surged to 10.1% last month and is expected to climb further.

Mr Morgan, director of economic statistics, said all types of shops saw sales drop with food stores particularly hard hit.

Energy bills

Meanwhile, the UK is borrowing billions of pounds to limit energy bill rises for households and businesses.

Borrowing - the difference between spending and tax income - was £20bn last month, up £2.2bn from a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It is the second highest September borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, the ONS said.

The figure is lower than in September 2020, at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, when the government was borrowing to fund schemes such as furlough, it said.

Borrowing set to rise

But economists warned that government borrowing is set to rise further in the coming months.

The Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR) makes independent forecasts on what impact government decisions on things like tax and spending will have on borrowing and growth.

It is due to issue its latest forecast on 31 October when the chancellor delivers his economic plan detailing its spending plans.

Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director of think tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said so far for the first half of the year government borrowing was almost as expected but warned it was likely to rise much higher.

"But this is little guide to how much borrowing will be over the whole of this financial year, as the huge cost of government support for household and business energy use only began in earnest this month."

The IFS predicts borrowing this year could reach almost £200bn, "nearly £100bn more than the OBR forecast," he added.

Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, also warned that government borrowing was expected to "only worsen from October onwards".

This was to due the government's energy price guarantee for households and businesses, on top of the second cost of living instalment and the support for pensioners, he said.

The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said: "To stabilise markets, I've been clear that protecting our public finances means difficult decisions lie ahead.

"We will do whatever is necessary to drive down debt in the medium term and to ensure that taxpayers' money is well spent, putting the public finances on a sustainable path as we grow the economy."

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2022-10-21 07:59:00Z
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