Scientist calls for return of outdoor socialising with Rule of Six - but says 'massive weddings' and large sporting events with no Covid regulations may not happen for a 'few years'
- Professor Tim Spector says small gatherings should 'definitely be encouraged'
- He says if infection figures drop further restrictions should be lifted in March
- But he said there could be Covid rules at events like Cheltenham for 'a few years'
The Government should bring back the 'Rule of Six' and allow small outdoor gatherings as early as March, a leading scientist has today urged.
Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, said he believes Britons should 'definitely be encouraged' to meet in small groups when the Government begins lifting its current Covid restrictions.
He said measures such as the 'Rule of Six' could be reintroduced around the same time children return to primary schools - which the Government currently hopes will happen on March 8 in England.
But, in what was a message of cautious optimism, he warned that 'massive weddings' and large sporting events might be forced to keep Covid restrictions for 'a few years'.
Speaking to Times Radio, Professor Spector said: 'I can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again, I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone.
The news emerged as the latest official figures showed coronavirus cases plummeted by 25 per cent on last week while daily Covid-related deaths fell by more than a third, suggesting the third lockdown is curbing transmission of the virus.
Data published by the Department of Health on Sunday showed that another 15,845 cases were recorded in the UK, down by 25 per cent from 21,088 daily cases seven days ago.
The Government should bring back the 'Rule of Six' and allow small outdoor gatherings as early as March, a leading epidemiologist has today urged. Pictured: A Library image of friends enjoying a drink outside
In a message of hope, Tim Spector (pictured left), professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, said he Britons should 'definitely be encouraged' to meet in small groups next month. He said the some of the current lockdown restrictions could be lifted around the same time students are allowed to return to primary schools - which Boris Johnson (pictured) hopes will happen on March 8 in England
Professor Spector said Britons should still continue to do 'the easy things', such as observing social-distancing, wearing masks and washing hands.
'These things don't cost really anything to do,' he added.
'I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily.'
Addressing infection rates he said: 'We're moving towards where rates are generally much lower everywhere, we're seeing about one in 170 people on average affected.
'I think around one in 250 would be where I start to become more comfortable (with restrictions being eased), but it also depends on the context at the time and things like hospitals and death rates as well, because I don't think we should be fixated on any one particular parameter, we've got to look at the overall picture.'
Asked about whether private gardens were safer than outdoor pubs or restaurants, he said: 'My personal view, and I'm not speaking for anyone here, is actually sometimes a beer garden is more controlled than people's homes and gardens,' he said.
'Generally most establishments are well behaved and I think they clean the tables and people keep their distance and I see no reason why we couldn't move towards that in places that are well set up for it.'
His comments came as the number of coronavirus-related deaths fell 36 per cent week-on-week, from 587 last Sunday down to 373 today, bringing demands for fewer than 1,000 cases per day ever closer to life.
Earlier, hospital chiefs warned Prime Minister Boris Johnson that there must be fewer than 1,000 coronavirus cases per day before the third national lockdown can be eased.
NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson will urge Mr Johnson not to lift the restrictions or risk a potential fourth wave of infections - despite 22 per cent of all over-18s in Britain now having been vaccinated.
His demands mean that daily cases of Covid-19 must fall by a staggering 95 per cent from their current number - 18,262 yesterday - to record fewer than 1,000 per day.
At the current weekly fall in cases of 20 per cent, it would take 14 weeks to record fewer than 1,000 cases - meaning some form of restriction would remain until at least May 15.
SAGE modelling has also predicted a fourth wave of more than 1,000 deaths per day in Spring if restrictions are lifted completely or too quickly, with the rules set to be reviewed on March 8.
The government's scientific advisers believe there could be a further 130,000 deaths between now and June next year, taking the total close to 250,000.
They fear that although the most vulnerable Britons will have received a dose of vaccine by the time restrictions are lifted, the virus could still hospitalise a large number of un-vaccinated younger people.
And although the government is on track to vaccinate the over-70s by February 15 they believe infections could prove severe in the small percentage of recipients in whom the vaccine does not block symptoms.
Hospitalisations are falling rapidly but there are still 29,326 patients in hospital with coronavirus in the UK.
University of Warwick research published in January, before the current vaccination data became available, suggested that if a vaccine could prevent 65% of transmission, as Oxford now says its vaccine does, the country's death rate could be kept to the low hundreds per day or fewer from late March onwards if the rule of six is kept in place. The model is based on a large majority of the population having a vaccine with that level of effectiveness. But it predicts a large fourth wave if measure are eased too quickly
Data from the Department for Health shows that Britain recorded 15,845 cases today, down by 25 per cent from 21,088 cases last Sunday. The number of daily Covid-related deaths fell 36 per cent week-on-week, from 587 last Sunday down to 373 today, the figures show
Writing in the Sunday Times, Mr Hopson warned: 'We have crested the peak but we're only just beginning the descent.
'We're still at a dangerously high altitude where the NHS is under great pressure and the thing we know is the descent is going to be much slower because people are taking longer to recover.
'It's going to take months, not days and weeks.'
But lockdown sceptic Tory MPs are pushing for the restrictions to be lifted as soon as possible - arguing that the vaccine will prevent most serious cases. Mark Harper, who chairs the Tory MP Covid Recovery Group (CRG), said: 'These top nine groups [of over-50s who should be vaccinated by Spring ] account for around 99 per cent of those that have died from Covid and about 80 per cent of hospital admissions.
'It will be almost impossible to justify having any restrictions in place at all by that point.'
Mr Johnson is set to unveil his road map out of lockdown towards the end of the month, with hopes the return of schools from March 8 can be followed by allowing mixing outdoors, with bars and restaurants freed up over the summer.
Meanwhile ministers are considering changing the school year in England to keep classrooms open for longer in the summer term to help pupils recover from lockdown, it was claimed today.
Number 10 is said to be weighing up a two-week extension in the warmer months, cutting into the summer holidays, with the holiday time redistributed to existing breaks in the autumn and winter.
One of the attractions for ministers of potentially extending the summer term is that the weather would allow windows and doors to be kept open in school buildings to improve ventilation and reduce the risk of coronavirus spreading.
Many schools across England are due to break up for the summer holidays on Friday July 23.
A two-week extension would therefore see pupils continuing to attend class during the first week of August.
Boris Johnson has said schools across England will not reopen until March 8 at the earliest.
The Prime Minister has said he will publish a lockdown exit strategy later this month amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs to bring forward a return to classrooms.
Changing the school year is one of a number of options being looked at by Number 10 as the Government develops its plans to help students catch up on lost time.
It is thought the two weeks of lost summer holiday could be added to the autumn half-term and the Christmas holidays, according to the Sunday Times.
Extending those holidays would also provide a longer so-called 'fire break' in the colder months, providing more time for infections to fall.
Robert Halfon, the Conservative chairman of the Education Select Committee, told the newspaper that the change to the school year is under consideration by ministers.
He said: 'We have to reform the school year. There has to be change; things cannot carry on the way they did pre-Covid. From my discussions with No10, everything is up for debate.'
The Welsh government has already suggested it could move to extend the summer term.
Kirsty Williams, the Welsh education minister, told WalesOnline last week: 'At the moment our focus is on the here and now and trying to get children back to face to face teaching.
'But I think we do need to have a conversation about how the pandemic might look in the autumn and winter and whether, when we are thinking about mitigating against the impact of Covid and keeping our schools, and those who work in them, safe, is it possible whether there is scope for shifting the academic year, maybe shortening the summer holiday and ensuring we have a firebreak at [autumn] half term or an extended Christmas holiday when we know the potential public health scenario might deteriorate again.'
The Sunday Telegraph reported that some private schools are preparing similar plans amid fears that Mr Johnson could delay a return to the classroom beyond March 8.
Some private schools are looking at bringing forward the Easter holidays to make more time for the summer term.
Geoff Barton, from the ASCL head teachers' union, said changes to the school year should not happen now.
He said: 'It's nice to think about doing things differently, and this is the moment to rethink them. But anyone trying to force that through this summer will find people are just craving getting back to normal.'
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2021-02-07 16:12:00Z
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