The public have given up on hoping that the Bank of England will get inflation down to its 2% target, and are now demanding pay rises which are creating “second-order” effects on inflation, says Harriett Baldwin, chair of the Treasury committee.
Governor Andrew Bailey suggests this isn’t quite true.
He says there has been a very big terms of trade shock in the UK, which has hit national real income. That creates a distributional question – which the Bank shouldn’t determing the outcome of. But that is why workers are seeing higher wages.
Bailey says that many economic indicators are signalling that the fall in inflation will continue (the CPI dropped to 6.8% in July, down from 7.9% in June).
He tells the Treasury committee:
As I’ve said a number of times, I think it [the fall] will be quite marked by the end of this year.
However, Bailey says the strength of wage bargaining has surprised the Bank, so it is now looking to see whether pay rise demands ease off.
The governor explains:
The question now is, as headline inflation comes down and people become more confident that it will come down… will we see inflation expectations continue to come down too, and be reflected in wage bargaining?
Bailey says firms’ expectations of wage increases have fallen, to 5%.
That’s two and a half-times your inflation target, points out Baldwin – surely a sign that inflation expectations are deanchored?
Bailey, though, suggests pay rise expectations could keep falling as inflation drops. And that will determine the Bank’s policy decisions (on interest rates, for example).
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Time for a recap.
The pound has dropped to its lowest level in three months, after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey told MPs that UK interest rates may not need to rise much higher.
Testifying to the Treasury committee, Bailey indicated that borrowing costs may be near their peak, after 14 consecutive increases in base rate.
He said:
“I think we are much nearer now to the top of the cycle. And I’m not therefore saying we’re at the top of the cycle because we’ve got a meeting to come but I think we are much nearer to it on interest rates on the basis of current evidence.”
Governor Bailey also forecast that inflation, last recorded at 6.8% in July, will continue to fall this year, saying:
When I look at it today, many of the indicators are now moving as we would expect them to move and are signalling that the fall in inflation will continue and as I’ve said a number of times I think will be quite marked by the end of this year.”
“I should say possibly that we will get a tick up in the next release because fuel prices went down in August last year and went up a bit in August this year ... but I don’t that as a central change in the path.”
Sterling has dropped by over half a cent today to as low as $1.2483, the lowest since early June.
Bailey also told MPs that increasing diversity in the City will lead to better decisions.
In other news…
The British Chambers of Commerce has predicted that Britain will narrowly avoid a recession this year – but people and businesses will still feel the pain akin to the 2008 financial crash.
UK housebuilding has slumped, as high interest rates hit demand for homes.
NatWest bank has appointed a new chair, to succeed Sr Howard Davies, as it continues to deal with the fallout from the scandal surrounding the threatened closure of Nigel Farage’s bank accounts.
Rick Haythornthwaite – who previously chaired Network Rail and Mastercard as well as the British Gas owner and now leads the boardrooms of Ocado and the AA – will take over next year.
Here’s the rest of today’s business news:
Q: The UK statistics office has just revised up its estimate of UK growth since the pandemic began quite considerably – does that make the Bank’s job even harder?
Governor Bailey says there is always more uncertainty over GDP data because it is often revised.
The ONS’s revision help the Bank with its argument that the economy has been stronger than expected, Bailey adds.
Q: Are today’s mortgage rates still affected by the ‘turmoil period’ almost a year ago (when the mini-budget rocked markets)?
Andrew Bailey says most of that impact has come out of the market.
Today, the story is much more about the resilience of the economy.
Q: Your mandate is to get inflation down to 2%, so is it worth risking a recession as growth isn’t part of your mandate, asks Conservative MP Andrea Leadsom.
Andrew Bailey explains that the Bank has flexibility over how quickly it brings inflation down to target, so it does balance the impact of its decisions on the economy.
Currently, the Bank thinks inflation will fall to target at the end of next year – it isn’t tightening policy harder to bring that date forwards…
MPC member Swati Dhingra points out that a recession poses “real risks” to the inflation target, so the Bank would want to avoid one.
Deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe agrees – he tells MPs that the Bank’s remit is to bring inflation “sustainably” back to the 2% target. So creating a recession immediately, through fast increases in interest rates, would push inflation below target.
Bailey adds that the Bank can’t always promise that a recession can be avoided – after all, it did predict a recession last year, before the drop in energy prices.
Andrew Bailey went on to tell MPs he is aware that higher interest rates have a disproportionate impact on poorer people, such as those who rent their homes.
But, he insists that if the Bank doesn’t get inflation down “the consequences will be worse”.
Treasury committee member Sir James Duddridge MP turns to the recent turmoil at NatWest bank.
Given concerns about sexism in the City, Duddridge says it was “very upsetting” to see Alison Rose lose her job, as she had been a ‘pathfinder’.
Andrew Bailey says it is “absolutely unacceptable” to close bank accounts on the basis of people’s politics.
On diversity, he says the FCA and the PRA regulators will release work soon on diversity and inclusion.
Greater diversity will lead to better decisions being taken, he insists.
Bailey says he has “no time” for getting into the woke debate, “whatever woke means”.
He explains:
It’s really not about that. It’s about having good decision making, made by institutions that are broadly representative of the country we serve.
Bank of England deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe has told MPs that there are now “mixed signals” about the path of inflation.
Cunliffe explains:
We’re still getting strong pay growth and service price inflation, but we’re also starting to see some cooling in the labour market and that will be the kind of discussion going forward.”
Last month’s labour market report showed the biggest jump in basic pay since at least 2001, with regular wages up 7.8% in the last year.
Q: Is Britain on the edge of a recession, as some commentators fear?
Governor Andrew Bailey says the Bank’s most recent forecasts, from August, do not include a recession, but do show “a very weak growth path”.
Growth is just above zero throughout.
MPC committee member Swati Dhingra, who opposed August’s interest rate rise, says demand and activity are weak.
Turning to interest rates, governor Andrew Bailey says the Bank of England is close to ending its run of interest rate increases.
Bailey tells MPs:
“I think we are much nearer now to the top of the cycle.
And I’m not therefore saying we’re at the top of the cycle because we’ve got a meeting to come but I think we are much nearer to it on interest rates on the basis of current evidence.”
The Bank is next due to set interest rates on 21st September; the City expects another increase in base rate, from 5.25% to 5.5%.
Treasury committee member Danny Kruger tries to drag the Bank of England into the grubby world of politics, with a “personnel question”.
Conservative MP Kruger claims that his constituents who are very concerned about the cost of living were “pretty unimpressed” to see a Bank employee dressed as a zombie at a protest against government policy.
Q: Is that acceptable behaviour?
Andrew Bailey says he has already written to Kruger about this, setting out the Bank’s policy. This policy is now being reviewed, he says, as he and Kruger both agree should happen.
The relevent question, Bailey says, is “whose time did that occur on”.
The employee – Alistair Strathern – took part in a demonstration against the Public Order Bill outside the Home Office last November.
The reason this is being discussed now, is that Strathern is the Labour Party candidate in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election this autumn.
Bailey adds that the Bank does not intend to get involved in party politics.
Andrew Bailey’s prediction of a ‘quite marked’ fall in inflation will cheer the government, as it has pledged to halve the rise in the cost of living by the end of the year.
Last weekend, chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned there could be an upward ‘blip’ in inflation this month.
And today, Bailey suggests that is possible – but wouldn’t indicate a change in the wider path of inflation.
He says:
“I should say possibly that we will get a tick up in the next release because fuel prices went down in August last year and went up a bit in August this year.
But, I don’t that as a central change in the path.”
Harriett Baldwin MP then challenges the Bank of England over concerns of ‘group think’ at Threadneedle Street.
She cites concerns that the Bank doesn’t have many monetarists (economists who think controlling the money supply is the key to inflation) on its Monetary Policy Committee.
She also says America’s Ben Bernanke used a wide range of indicators when he worked at the US Federal Reserve, including the ‘tall buildings index’ and the ‘mens underwear index’ [a measure of discretionary spending, apparently].
That qualitative information aided Fed decision making, she says.
Governor Andrew Bailey denies that the Bank’s analysis is pants, and denies there is any groupthink on the MPC – pointing out that the committee is often split in its votes.
“If you look at the voting pattern of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), I don’t think you would really conclude that there was group think in the MPC.”
The Bank’s agents around the country also feed important information in.
Bailey adds that the Bank did look at the money supply in its last monetary policy report. But, the flow of money supply will give you a different indicator than the stock of money.
The public have given up on hoping that the Bank of England will get inflation down to its 2% target, and are now demanding pay rises which are creating “second-order” effects on inflation, says Harriett Baldwin, chair of the Treasury committee.
Governor Andrew Bailey suggests this isn’t quite true.
He says there has been a very big terms of trade shock in the UK, which has hit national real income. That creates a distributional question – which the Bank shouldn’t determing the outcome of. But that is why workers are seeing higher wages.
Bailey says that many economic indicators are signalling that the fall in inflation will continue (the CPI dropped to 6.8% in July, down from 7.9% in June).
He tells the Treasury committee:
As I’ve said a number of times, I think it [the fall] will be quite marked by the end of this year.
However, Bailey says the strength of wage bargaining has surprised the Bank, so it is now looking to see whether pay rise demands ease off.
The governor explains:
The question now is, as headline inflation comes down and people become more confident that it will come down… will we see inflation expectations continue to come down too, and be reflected in wage bargaining?
Bailey says firms’ expectations of wage increases have fallen, to 5%.
That’s two and a half-times your inflation target, points out Baldwin – surely a sign that inflation expectations are deanchored?
Bailey, though, suggests pay rise expectations could keep falling as inflation drops. And that will determine the Bank’s policy decisions (on interest rates, for example).
The Treasury Committee start by asking the Bank of England about the review of its forecasting being led by former top US central banker Ben Bernanke.
Q: Inflation is still far too high for anyone to feel comfortable. When will the terms of reference of Ben Bernanke’s review be released?
Governor Andrew Bailey says Bernanke has already started work. The Bank of England’s court is expected to finalise those terms of reference when it meets on 22 September, and publish them shortly afterwards.
Q: You have said your forecasting had a ‘recency bias’, covering data since you became independent – so not covering the energy crisis of the 1970s. What work have you done to incorporate data from the 70s and 80s?
Bailey says the Bank has a ‘suite of models’, as it would be a mistake to rely on just one. But it tends not to use date from the 1970s as the macroeconomic policy regime was different in those days (ie government, not the Bank, set interest rates).
But staff can still look back to the 70s…
Q: So has the Monetary Policy Committee looked into previous energy shocks, since the invasion of Ukraine?
Bailey says the Bank has looked at previous energy shocks, yes, and also examined the distributional effects of such shocks (the ‘labour share and the profit share’). What happened in the 70s is quite different to the situation today, but it’s “interesting and informative” to compare the two, he says.
Over in parliament, the Treasury committee are preparing to question senior figures from the Bank of England.
They’ll hear from:
Dr Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England
Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England
Dr Swati Dhingra, External member, Monetary Policy Committee
Elisabeth Stheeman, External member, Financial Policy Committee
MPs will examine the future path of inflation and the UK’s economic outlook, based on the Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report published on 3 August (when it raised interest rates to 5.25%), and also its Financial Stability Report, published on 12 July.
The number of excess winter deaths in Great Britain caused by living in a cold, damp home climbed by about a third last winter after more than 1 million vulnerable households missed out on government energy bill support, MPs have heard.
Fuel poverty campaigners told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday that despite relatively mild weather, the number of excess winter deaths had climbed to 4,706, up from 3,186 a year earlier, as a result of the energy cost crisis.
Simon Francis, a coordinator at the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, added that the number of excess winter deaths was likely to rise again this winter because of higher levels of energy debt while vulnerable households were forced to “hope for mild weather”.
Nigel Farage has argued that Howard Davies should have been sacked from NatWest, rather than staying on until next April to be replaced by Richard Haythornwaite.
Newsflash: NatWest has announced that (as rumoured this morning) City veteran Richard Haythornthwaite will succeed Sir Howard Davies as its chair.
Haythornthwaite, currently the chair of Ocado, will join the bank’s board next January, and replace Davies in April 2024, once regulators give the green light.
He’ll be paid £775,000 per year, matching Davies’s current salary.
The change comes six weeks after NatWest CEO Dame Alison Rose resigned, over the closure of Nigel Farage’s bank accounts with NatWest’s private bank Coutts.
Mark Seligman, NatWest’s Senior Independent Director, points out that Davies had said back in April that he would leave within the year.
“At our AGM in April 2023 we announced that we would be commencing the search for Howard’s successor. Today’s announcement follows a rigorous process which I have led along with the senior independent directors from our ring-fenced bank. After careful consideration of a number of high-quality candidates, the Board has unanimously chosen Rick as our new Chair.
Rick is a highly experienced Chair who combines a successful commercial career with a deep knowledge of financial services markets and technology, as well as a strong track record of delivery at significant customer-facing organisations.”
The closure of 52 Wilko stores has been described as “another nail in the coffin for the high street” by a customer at a branch in Acton, west London, which is among those due to shut next week.
Michael Penning, 74, a business consultant from Acton, who was shopping for paint brushes, told PA Media:
“I think it’s a shame, a big, big shame.
“It kind of filled a gap Woolworths left, it doesn’t have everything, but it filled a gap, I’m not sure what’s going to fill the void. It’s just such a good place to shop for so many different things.
“They’re competitive in price and the quality is pretty good. It’s going to be another empty unit on the high street.
“They’ve got their own reasons why their business model is not working, but it must be like for everyone in retail – the pressures from rents, rates and energy.
“Big companies are pushing people towards self-scanning, it’s a gentle process to put people towards self-checkout, that’s how it’s all going to go because they want to save on staff.”
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiigFodHRwczovL3d3dy50aGVndWFyZGlhbi5jb20vYnVzaW5lc3MvbGl2ZS8yMDIzL3NlcC8wNi91ay1mcmFnaWxlLWVjb25vbXktdGVldGVycy1nb3Zlcm5tZW50LXNsb3ctY292aWQtZnJhdWQtYmFuay1vZi1lbmdsYW5kLWJ1c2luZXNzLWxpdmXSAYoBaHR0cHM6Ly9hbXAudGhlZ3VhcmRpYW4uY29tL2J1c2luZXNzL2xpdmUvMjAyMy9zZXAvMDYvdWstZnJhZ2lsZS1lY29ub215LXRlZXRlcnMtZ292ZXJubWVudC1zbG93LWNvdmlkLWZyYXVkLWJhbmstb2YtZW5nbGFuZC1idXNpbmVzcy1saXZl?oc=5
2023-09-06 15:50:16Z
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