The number of job vacancies in the UK rose above 1m for the first time on record in the three months to August, according to official data that also showed employment growing at pace and more people rejoining the labour market.
The Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday that unemployment fell to 4.6 per cent in the three months to July, down from 4.7 per cent a month earlier, while the employment rate rose to 75.2 per cent.
More timely data from HM Revenue & Customs showed that the jobs boom continued in August, with payroll employment up by 241,000 on the month to match pre-pandemic levels.
The number of unfilled positions hit 1.034m in the three months to August, the first time it has surpassed the 1m mark since the ONS started monitoring job advertisements 20 years ago.
There were also more people entering the labour market as opportunities became available. Economic inactivity fell partly because of a sharp rise in the number of students working or job hunting, while fewer people said they were looking after family, according to the ONS.
The figures confirm that the labour market was gathering steam over the summer, despite a slowdown in the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that output growth may have been held back by a lack of workers, as much as by consumer caution over a rise in coronavirus infections.
Ruth Gregory, at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the data would add to concerns that the jobs market could be overheating, since it “brought more signs . . . that labour shortages are contributing to faster underlying pay growth”. That left the Bank of England with “a tricky task juggling a tightening labour market, rising inflation and a weakening in the near-term activity outlook,” she added.
Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, said the ONS figures, which he viewed as more reliable than HMRC’s real-time data, showed “the biggest fall in the size of the labour market since the early 90s recession”, with 500,000 fewer people in or looking for work than before the pandemic began. “The biggest risk we’re now facing is not enough workers rather than not enough jobs,” he said.
But Gerwyn Davies, an adviser at the CIPD body for HR professionals, said the data showed that almost all the extra jobs created since the start of the pandemic were temporary.
Almost 1.4m workers were now in temporary jobs — a five-year high — and around a third of them had said they wanted a permanent contract. This showed there was more employers could do to address labour shortages, Davies added. “Candidates want more than a job; they also want some level of security after such an uncertain period.”
The ONS said young people in particular — the hardest hit at the start of the pandemic — had seen a strong increase in employment.
The data will support the government’s assertion that the jobs market has recovered to a point where it can withdraw wage subsidies and other emergency income support.
Rishi Sunak, chancellor, said the statistics showed the government’s plan for jobs was working, adding that ministers’ focus remained “on creating opportunities and supporting people’s jobs”.
“The economy is now well prepared for the end of furlough,” said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, adding: “The challenge for government is to put its money where its mouth is and demonstrate in practice how we can fill vacancies by investing in our domestic workforce in a post-Brexit world.”
Some economists warned that unemployment could still rise again over the next few months as the furlough scheme ends — with many small businesses still using it to support jobs that may no longer be viable.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said the labour market could remain “choppy”, with vacancies taking time to fill due to skills shortages and the lower numbers of overseas workers.
The ONS said annual pay growth had softened slightly on its headline measure of average weekly earnings, which stood at 8.3 per cent for the three months to July. But this figure was heavily distorted by the effects of the pandemic, in particular the fall in the share of low paid jobs.
Its best estimate was that underlying growth in regular earnings stood in a range between 3.6 per cent — close to pre-pandemic levels — and 5.1 per cent. This suggested that pay pressures had increased slightly since the last month’s data, but the ONS warned the figures should be treated with caution.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiP2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmZ0LmNvbS9jb250ZW50LzhkZDcwZjZmLWQ1NTctNDg3ZC1hNTViLTg0MWExMDU5MzBjMtIBP2h0dHBzOi8vYW1wLmZ0LmNvbS9jb250ZW50LzhkZDcwZjZmLWQ1NTctNDg3ZC1hNTViLTg0MWExMDU5MzBjMg?oc=5
2021-09-14 13:06:47Z
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