Sunday Crunch: Brexit showdown — ‘F*** the Americans!’ — Raab resignation pledge - POLITICO Europe

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Good Sunday afternoon. Welcome to another political week.

THINGS TO KNOW

BREXIT SHOWDOWN: Is Brexit showdown week finally here? Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab has put Westminster on warning that a long-anticipated deal on Northern Ireland trading arrangements could come in a “matter of days.” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has also started his sales pitch with a weekend interview and flurry of editorials. Hold onto your hats, all the signs are there that things are moving.

‘Matter of days’: While Raab and Downing Street continue to insist a deal is still not done, Raab told Sky’s Sophy Ridge he was hoping for “good news in a matter of days, not weeks.”

Sunak speaks: Raab’s broadcast circuit accompanied a weekend media blitz from the prime minister himself. Sunak told the Sunday Times he was “giving it everything we’ve got” to secure a deal with Brussels, and was hopeful of a “positive outcome.” He also opened op-eds in both the Sun on Sunday and the Telegraph with a reminder he was a Brexit voter. He insisted in the Telegraph that he wouldn’t agree to any deal “which doesn’t fix the problems and deliver for Northern Ireland and our precious Union.”

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Selling the substance: There is not yet a text to pore over, but Raab gave a hint of the arguments we are likely to hear for the deal’s substance in the days ahead. On Sky News, he talked up the prospect of “more of an intelligence-based approach” to goods checks, and a move away from individual checks in Northern Irish ports. On the thorny issue of the European Court of Justice, Raab argued: “If we can scale back some of the regulatory checks that apply, and some of the paperwork that applies, that would in itself involve a significant, substantial scaling back of the role of the ECJ.” Raab also talked up the idea of a “proper democratic check coming out of the institutions in Stormont.” The big question is whether that will be enough for the Brexit purists?

Parliamentary showdown: How those MPs get to have their say on any deal secured by Sunak is the other big question today. Raab told the BBC’s Laura K that MPs will “have the opportunity to express themselves on the deal,” but the all-important detail of what a showdown might look like has not been forthcoming yet.

Resignation watch: Downing Street will initially be preoccupied with whether Sunak will lose any ministers once any deal is unveiled. The Sunday Telegraph puts Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister and a leading Brexiteer, on resignation watch after it says he was “frozen out of negotiations.” Baker declined to comment.

Skeptical: And there have been plenty of skeptical DUP voices around this morning, albeit the most hardline of the party. “I don’t think there are any rabbits — or even a hat to pull them from,” DUP MP Ian Paisley, the son of the former Stormont first minister and one of the DUP’s most hardline MPs, writes in the Sun on Sunday. “If his plan involves keeping any part of the protocol the DUP will not be going back into power-sharing. It is that simple,” he starkly writes. His colleague Sammy Wilson told GB News’ Camilla Tominey there did not appear to have been any deal on the imposition of EU law, the central issue which affects Northern Ireland.

Frosty verdict: Also on GB News, former Brexit negotiator David Frost, who was behind the original deal with Boris Johnson, said a good deal would take a “significant step” towards “full sovereignty” over Northern Ireland, but warned it should not be presented as the final step.

Not enough: On Sky News, Conservative MP and Chairman of the ERG Mark Francois did not sound especially conciliatory this morning either. Asked about the prospect of less trade friction requiring less of a role for the European Court of Justice, he said his caucus wanted “a situation where EU law is expunged from Northern Ireland so it is treated on the same basis as England, Scotland and Wales.” “We’re not stupid,” he told Sky.

Not so great: After ex-PM Johnson last weekend issued a broadside against any plans to scrap the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which threatens to unilaterally override parts of the protocol agreement, the government is fighting back. Raab was keen to talk it down as a solution this morning. He told Sophy Ridge that as an alternative it would be “fraught with legal uncertainty.” The Sunday Times also has conveniently obtained a leaked summary of legal advice given to Johnson which the paper says suggests the bill “may not be worth the paper it is written on.”

“F*** the Americans!”: Johnson has also reportedly been using fruity language again. The Sunday Times reports that in response to lobbying from former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland to back the deal, arguing that it was necessary to cement relations with U.S. President Joe Biden, Johnson was overheard replying: “F*** the Americans!” A “source close to” Johnson does not deny the comments, and insists it was a “jocular conversation” in the chamber that someone had misunderstood. In excellent timing, Buckland is on the BBC’s Westminster Hour tonight. Raab told Times Radio: “I probably wouldn’t choose those words.”

In better news: Helpfully for Sunak, former Environment Secretary George Eustice was on the BBC Laura K political panel this morning, and said he was “certainly quite open” to a deal, if it was in the “sort of territory” of aims set out by the Johnson government in summer 2021. He warned colleagues to “stop thinking that if there’s a deal that’s about to be done, it means we’ve been done over in some way.” Eustice did later say he was “a little bit nervous about the role of the ECJ.”

Love from Labour: David Lammy was the latest Labour frontbencher sent out to give his party’s backing to Sunak, telling Sky it was “very likely that if a deal does emerge, it will be an improvement on the Northern Ireland protocol deal that was struck by Boris Johnson just a few years ago.” But he cautioned Sunak there should be “no rush” on any votes in parliament. “People are entitled to look at the small print in detail.”

Royal crush: Sky’s intriguing scoop on King Charles’ aborted meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this weekend has also got a few Tories hot under the collar. The Mail on Sunday follows up with a splash quoting “senior Tories” who claim the king’s trip to Berlin and Paris next month is “exploiting the Royal Family for his short-term political ends.” On Sky News, Raab said the King regularly met heads of state and heads of leading international organizations and scheduling was “for the palace” to decide.

RESIGNATION WATCH II: Raab told Sky’s Sophy Ridge he would resign if allegations of bullying are upheld against him. He is currently being investigated by the senior lawyer Adam Tolley. “If an allegation of bullying is upheld, I would resign,” Raab said.

Plain speaking: Later on the BBC, Raab said he was confident he had “behaved professionally throughout.” Asked if there should be more plain speaking in politics, he said: “Yes, absolutely.” He insisted there should be a zero tolerance of bullying, but backed ministers coming in to directly “challenge assumptions” and “test ideas.” He said “direct conversations” were needed to deliver for the British people, but insisted that could be “reconciled with being respectful and professional.”

Not listening: On the BBC panel, Dave Penman, general secretary of the FDA public sector union, said civil servants felt there was “no point raising a complaint, because no one will address it.”

QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP

LABOUR GAINS: Keir Starmer’s bid to break with the Jeremy Corbyn era was further bolstered over the weekend after Luciana Berger, the Jewish former Labour MP, who left the party over its handling of antisemitism, said she would rejoin the Labour Party following Starmer’s apology. Starmer tweeted their exchange of letters last night. Berger is speaking to Times Radio’s Ayesha Hazarika at 4.30 p.m.

Sainsbury drop: And the Observer reports on more good news for Starmer as New Labour-era donor David Sainsbury has reportedly given a £2 million donation to his fighting fund — Sainsbury’s first multimillion-pound drop since 2016.

MATERNITY BACKLASH: Theo Clarke, who announced on Friday she had not been chosen to stand in the new Stafford constituency, has told the Sunday Telegraph there had been “unhappiness from a minority” in her constituency party about her decision to take maternity leave. She grimly describes how she suffered “abuse” after announcing she was going to have a baby. She is not giving up the fight, and said she will attempt to get selected through the wider Tory membership in her constituency.

BUDGET BUILD-UP: The Sunday Telegraph says a trio of ex-chancellors have warned the current resident of No. 11 Downing Street Jeremy Hunt against hiking corporation tax at next month’s budget. Philip Hammond tells the paper he was “quite disappointed” that the rate is due to rise to 25 percent. Ex-Home Secretary Priti Patel had made a similar plea in Saturday’s Telegraph, throwing in the added challenge to Hunt to pull out of an international agreement not to drop the business tax below 15 percent.

IN THEIR SIGHTS: Ministers have “activist lawyers” dealing with asylum cases in their sights, according to the Sunday Express, which says those they think are “undermining the system” will be red-flagged and referred to regulators. A government source tells the paper: “These lawyers know what they’re doing — it’s a gravy train and the aim of the game is to string it out as long as possible and put in the least amount of work so they can maximize the money they take from the taxpayer.” An unimpressed Law Society hits back, warning it is “vital to avoid any perception of interference or intimidation” by the state.

RACE FOR HOLYROOD: The candidates in the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the SNP have been out on the airwaves over the weekend. Scottish Health Secretary Humza Yousaf told the BBC’s Laura K he was “not wedded” to the idea, put forward by Sturgeon last year, of making the next U.K. election a de facto referendum on independence. Over on BBC Scotland, his leadership rival Ash Regan suggested it wasn’t right to fight the next general election on the single issue of independence. The BBC has a write up here.

TRANS PRISONERS: As well as fielding questions on Brexit and bullying, Raab was also out promoting new U.K. government rules which will prevent any transgender offender with male genitalia intact, or who have been convicted of a sexual offense, or violent offense, from being allowed into the female prison estate. The Telegraph has more detail here.

LIVING WITH SHAPPS: Marking the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Energy Secretary Grant Shapps has done a series of interviews about taking in a Ukrainian family. This one in Saturday’s Times is worth a read. Crunch particularly enjoyed the dig from refugee Snezhana about the trains often being on strike.

MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): True & Fair Party Leader Gina Miller; British Women’s Equality Party Leader Mandu Reid, Reform Party Leader Richard Tice, former Green Party Leader Natalie Bennett; Sky’s Jon Craig, and an exclusive interview with former Labour MP Luciana Berger (4.30 p.m.)

Gloria Meets on GB News (6 p.m.): Former Tory Cabinet minister Chloe Smith, Labour MP Emma Lewell-Buck and Labour peer Charlie Falconer.

Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Former Cabinet minister Robert Buckland; Shadow Leader of the Commons Thangam Debbonaire; UK in a Changing Europe’s Anand Menon; the Speccie’s Isabel Hardman.

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WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY

STRIKES: University staff to walkout.

COMMONS: Currently slated to sit from 2.30 p.m. with education questions followed by the Lifelong Learning (Higher Education Fee Limits) Bill.

HOME AFFAIRS: Former Home Secretary Priti Patel to speak at Policy Exchange event on Prevent, 12 noon.

ENERGY: Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler to give evidence to the public accounts committee on energy bill support, 4 p.m.

NATIONAL SECURITY: National Security Adviser Tim Barrow up in front of parliament’s National Security Strategy joint committee, 4.20 p.m.

FOOD SECURITY: Supermarket chiefs due to meet ministers over salad shortage, according to the Sun on Sunday.

LABOUR: Labour leader Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves to host a roundtable of business leaders.

TUESDAY

BUSINESS: Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch to speak at a Legatum Prosperity Index report launch, 6.30 p.m.

ECONOMY: Institute for Fiscal Studies to hold pre-Budget press briefing, 10 a.m.

COVID-19: COVID-19 inquiry preliminary hearing on the impact of the pandemic on healthcare to be held.

STRIKES: Teachers on strike in Scotland and the north of England, and Amazon U.K. warehouse staff also out.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with the first questions to the new energy department followed by an opposition debate.

LORDS: Peers to hold the second day of the committee stage of the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill.

WEDNESDAY

ENERGY: Energy Secretary Grant Shapps to speak at a Chatham House energy event, 3 p.m.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Two-day meeting of G20 foreign ministers to begin in India.

ECONOMY: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech to conference on cost of living, text published at 10.10 a.m.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Wales questions followed by PMQs, a motion on social housing and the remaining stages of the Social Housing (Regulation) Bill.

STRIKES: Teachers in the Midlands and east of England to go out on strike.

HEALTH: Amanda Pritchard at Nuffield Health Policy Summit, 10 a.m.

LAW: Lord Chancellor Dominic Raab to give evidence to the House of Lords constitution committee, 10.15 a.m.

EQUALITIES: Equalities minister Kemi Badenoch to give evidence to the women and equalities committee, 2.45 p.m.

LORDS: Report stage of the National Security Bill.

THURSDAY

EX-PMS: Boris Johnson speaks at Soft Power Global Summit, 12 noon.

STRIKES: Teachers in London, Wales and the south of England to strike.

COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with transport questions followed by the business statement and debate on sex offender name changes and welsh affairs.

LORDS: Peers to hold the third day of the committee stage of the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill.

FRIDAY

ENVIRONMENT: Environment Secretary Therese Coffey to speak at the Our Ocean conference, 11 a.m.

WALES: Plaid Cymru Spring Conference begins

COMMONS: Private members’ bills.

Thanks: To Jones Hayden for spending his Sunday whipping Crunch into shape.

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