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Sabtu, 31 Oktober 2020

Covid: What will the England lockdown achieve? - BBC News

By James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent

What is the point?

The aim is simple - to avoid hospitals buckling under the weight of Covid patients and to stop people dying.

While your chance of surviving Covid has been transformed with better treatment, that still requires a hospital bed and staff.

The government says that on current trends, hospitals in some parts of the country could run out of space in weeks and the NHS as a whole, including the extra Nightingales, by Christmas.

If that happens then deaths, from Covid and other diseases, would soar with doctors unable to treat everyone.

Will lockdown drive cases down?

The answer is almost certainly yes, but by how much is a tricky question.

We cannot expect the same results as the first lockdown because this is not the same as the first lockdown. The role of schools in particular remains a major unknown.

Millions of children were banished from the classrooms in March and this will not be repeated in Lockdown 2.0.

But the Office for National Statistics has reported infections are "steeply increasing" in secondary school children. What exactly this means is still debated.

There are predictions that the four-week lockdown could drive infections down significantly - possibly to just a quarter of their current level.

But in a worst case, four weeks of pain might lead to just a 10% drop and we would still be in a sticky situation.

It will take around two weeks into the lockdown before we can tell how well it is working.

People inside a pub in Westminster watching Boris Johnson announce new lockdown measures

Why will lockdown cut infections?

Lockdowns stop us spending time with other people.

The coronavirus thrives on the fact that we are social and the only tool we have for stopping the virus is to cut the number of people we meet in our daily lives.

Everything we are doing is making an impact. The R number - the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to on average - was around 3 in March.

Now it is around 1.2, but anything above one means the number of cases will continue to grow exponentially. Lockdown should push the R number below one.

Will lockdown save lives?

Cutting infections would cut the number of deaths with Covid, but there would be a lag before the effect kicks in.

It is likely that deaths with Covid will continue to rise throughout the lockdown due to the long delay between people catching the virus, needing hospital treatment and dying.

The people who die with Covid at the end of November probably already have the virus today.

But lockdown will cost lives too. Last time some people who needed emergency care, including those having a stroke, did not seek help.

And there will be an economic hit that will make people poorer and affect long-term mental and physical health.

Will cases rise when lockdown is lifted?

If nothing else changes and we return to the restrictions we have today, then yes.

The point of locking down is fewer people get infected, but this means fewer build up immunity to the virus, although this remains a heavily debated area.

It means a high proportion of the population would remain vulnerable to the infection and is why some scientists expect a third or more waves of the virus that are managed by repeat lockdowns.

It's this issue that means some groups argue a completely different approach is needed.

But it buys time

Only buying time might sound pointless and like delaying the inevitable, but it allows for scientific progress.

The first lockdown gave UK researchers the opportunity to discover the first drug that saves lives from Covid-19, dexamethasone. We are in a better position now than we were.

It has also brought us, hopefully, to the cusp of a vaccine. Data on the first trials are expected imminently.

The government also says mass testing is on the horizon. The details are not yet clear, but China has been using it to test entire cities of millions in order to root out the virus.

It also gets us closer to spring. The seasons are turning against as the moment.

The virus persists more easily in the cold, we tend to meet indoors rather than outside and even shutting the windows because it's chilly makes it easier for the virus to spread. All that swings in our favour once the weather starts warming up.

Banner image reading 'more about coronavirus'

Lower cases make it easier to control the virus, in theory.

The government's Test and Trace programme is struggling badly.

It is like a stool that needs three legs to stay standing up. It needs testing capacity, the ability to rapidly trace contacts and for people to isolate in order to work.

One leg is fine as the UK has dramatically increased testing capacity. The problem is the other two are busted - contact tracing is far too slow and not everyone is isolating - so the programme is on the floor.

It should perform better when cases are low, but there are no guarantees the lockdown will get cases low enough and even Germany's widely-praised testing programme has not been able to stay on top of the virus.

Will all this save Christmas?

We simply do not know.

The lower the levels of the virus are the closer we might get, but the government is planning for the whole of winter not just for one day.

It is notable that Boris Johnson, who in the past has promised "normality by Christmas" acknowledge this year may in fact be "very different".

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2020-11-01 00:22:00Z
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Coronavirus: Furlough scheme in England extended until December at 80% - but critics say move is overdue - Sky News

Furlough payments will be extended at 80% for the duration of England's second lockdown, the prime minister has confirmed.

After announcing the strictest blanket coronavirus measures since March, Boris Johnson said the furlough scheme would continue through November until 2 December.

He said the end of the scheme, in which employees will receive four-fifths of their current salary up to a maximum of £2,500 of hours not worked, would coincide with the "easing of restrictions" and a return to the tiered system.

He said the scheme would differ from when it was first introduced, with it now being "time-limited". He also apologised for the hardship facing businesses as a result of the second lockdown.

"That's why we are going to extend the furlough system through November. The furlough scheme was a success in the spring and supported people in businesses in a critical time," he said.

"We will not end it, we will extend furlough until December."

This move could prove crucial to non-essential retail and hospitality services forced to close in the four-week lockdown, along with pubs, cafes and restaurants - who can offer only takeaways.

However, Trades Union Congress's (TUC) general secretary Frances O'Grady said families would face a "grim winter" because of the delay in support.

She said: "The extension of the furlough scheme is long overdue and necessary, but ministers must do more to protect jobs and prevent poverty.

"Furlough pay must never fall below the national minimum wage."

Universal Credit must be boosted, she said, while urging the government not to "abandon" the self-employed.

There were also calls from business leaders for the Test and Trace system to be fixed so workers are not asked to self-isolate without enough sick pay.

Jonathan Geldart, the director general of the Institute of Directors, said the new restrictions would inflict "great strain on an already fragile business community", but said furlough would be a relief to many firms.

"Small company directors who have gone without support throughout the crisis should be helped through local authority grants," he added.

Both the British Retail Consortium chief executive Helen Dickinson and Jace Tyrrell, the chief executive of the New West End Company, described the lockdown as a "nightmare before Christmas".

Ms Dickinson said: "It will cause untold damage to the high street in the run up to Christmas, cost countless jobs, and permanently set back the recovery of the wider economy, with only a minimal effect on the transmission of the virus."

She said the previous lockdown cost non-essential shops a weekly £1.6bn loss and expected the impact of the second lockdown to be worse.

She suggested there could be "a significant economic impact on the viability of thousands of shops and hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country" - despite the thousands of pounds retailers have spent on COVID-safe measures.

Mr Tyrrell said this year's pre-Christmas months are becoming "some of the most difficult trading periods we've ever experienced".

"Retailers and the public need to be reassured that there is light at the end of the tunnel, as continued uncertainty and stop start measures are undermining confidence and worsening an already catastrophic situation," he said.

Echoing Mr Tyrrell was Wales's counsel general, Jeremy Miles, who tweeted: "This should have been extended a long time ago.

"And if you believe 'We Stand Together' - why didn't you act when it was business and workers in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England who were looking for the support?"

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2020-10-31 23:24:08Z
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Nicola Sturgeon welcomes furlough extension as workers to be paid through November - Daily Record

The Government will extend furlough payments at 80% for the duration of the new national lockdown measures in England, Boris Johnson has said.

The Prime Minister said, during a Downing Street press conference, that he was sorry about the hardship that businesses have already endured this year.

Following his announcement it was confirmed the furlough scheme would be extended for all nations in the UK.

He said: "That's why we are going to extend the furlough system through November. The furlough scheme was a success in the spring and supported people in businesses in a critical time.

Rishi Sunak said furlough would be extended (Image: Getty Images)

"We will not end it, we will extend furlough until December."

It will have some differences to March in that these measures will be "time-limited", starting on November 5 and ending on December 2.

This is when the Government will seek to "ease restrictions" and go back into the tiered system.

Non-essential retail and hospitality services will be forced to close, while schools stay open during the four-week lockdown.

It means that pubs, cafes, restaurants will shut except for takeaway and delivery services.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced the extension.

He said: Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: "Over the past eight months of this crisis we have helped millions of people to continue to provide for their families. But now - along with many other countries around the world - we face a tough winter ahead.

"I have always said that we will do whatever it takes as the situation evolves. Now, as restrictions get tougher, we are taking steps to provide further financial support to protect jobs and businesses.

Boris Johnson announced the extension of the furlough scheme (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

"These changes will provide a vital safety net for people across the UK."

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon welcomed the extention.

She wrote: "This is good and expected. But a key question - is it only available during the period of English lockdown?

"Or will it be available in event a devolved gov thinks it necessary to have tougher restrictions at a later stage?"

TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady said that families are being forced to face a "grim winter" because the Government did not act decisively sooner.

Furlough Scheme Extended and Further Economic Support announced - GOV.UK

People and businesses across the UK are being provided with additional financial support as part of the government’s plan for the next phase of its response to the coronavirus outbreak, the Prime Minister announced today (31 October).

Throughout the crisis the government’s priority has been to protect lives and livelihoods. Today the Prime Minister said the government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) - also known as the Furlough scheme - will remain open until December, with employees receiving 80% of their current salary for hours not worked, up to a maximum of £2,500. Under the extended scheme, the cost for employers of retaining workers will be reduced compared to the current scheme, which ends today. This means the extended furlough scheme is more generous for employers than it was in October.

In addition, business premises forced to close in England are to receive grants worth up to £3,000 per month under the Local Restrictions Support Grant. Also, £1.1bn is being given to Local Authorities, distributed on the basis of £20 per head, for one-off payments to enable them to support businesses more broadly.

To give homeowners peace of mind too, mortgage holidays will also no longer end today.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said:

Over the past eight months of this crisis we have helped millions of people to continue to provide for their families. But now - along with many other countries around the world - we face a tough winter ahead.

I have always said that we will do whatever it takes as the situation evolves. Now, as restrictions get tougher, we are taking steps to provide further financial support to protect jobs and businesses. These changes will provide a vital safety net for people across the UK.

Job Retention Scheme

Employers small or large, charitable or non-profit, are eligible for the extended Job Retention Scheme, which will continue for a further month.

Businesses will have flexibility to bring furloughed employees back to work on a part time basis or furlough them full-time, and will only be asked to cover National Insurance and employer pension contributions which, for the average claim, accounts for just 5% of total employment costs.

The Job Support Scheme, which was scheduled to come in on Sunday 1st November, has been postponed until the furlough scheme ends.

Additional guidance will be set out shortly.

Mortgage Holidays

Mortgage payment holidays will no longer end today. Borrowers who have been impacted by coronavirus and have not yet had a mortgage payment holiday will be entitled to a six month holiday, and those that have already started a mortgage payment holiday will be able to top up to six months without this being recorded on their credit file.

The FCA will announce further information on Monday.

Business Grants

Businesses required to close in England due to local or national restrictions will be eligible for the following:

For properties with a rateable value of £15k or under, grants to be £1,334 per month, or £667 per two weeks;
For properties with a rateable value of between £15k-£51k grants to be £2,000 per month, or £1,000 per two weeks;
For properties with a rateable value of £51k or over grants to be £3,000 per month, or £1,500 per two weeks.

Today’s announcements are only part of the government’s world-leading economic response to coronavirus – the largest package of emergency support in post-war history – to protect, create and support jobs.

The furlough scheme protected over nine million jobs across the UK, and self-employed people have received over £13 billion in support. This is in addition to billions of pounds in tax deferrals and grants for businesses.

Further information

GRANTS

Business grant policy is fully devolved. Devolved Administrations will receive Barnett consequentials which they could use to establish similar schemes.

JOB RETENTION SCHEME

This extended Job Retention Scheme will operate as the previous scheme did, with businesses being paid upfront to cover wages costs. There will be a short period when we need to change the legal terms of the scheme and update the system and businesses will be paid in arrears for that period.
The CJRS is being extended until December. The level of the grant will mirror levels available under the CJRS in August, so the government will pay 80% of wages up to a cap of £2,500 and employers will pay employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and pension contributions only for the hours the employee does not work.
As under the current CJRS, flexible furloughing will be allowed in addition to full-time furloughing.
Further details, including how to claim this extended support through an updated claims service, will be provided shortly.
The Job Support Scheme will be introduced following the end of the CJRS.

Who is eligible?

Employers

All employers with a UK bank account and UK PAYE schemes can claim the grant. Neither the employer nor the employee needs to have previously used the CJRS.
The government expects that publicly funded organisations will not use the scheme, as has already been the case for CJRS, but partially publicly funded organisations may be eligible where their private revenues have been disrupted. All other eligibility requirements apply to these employers.

Employees

To be eligible to be claimed for under this extension, employees must be on an employer’s PAYE payroll by 23:59 30th October 2020. This means a Real Time Information (RTI) submission notifying payment for that employee to HMRC must have been made on or before 30th October 2020.
*As under the current CJRS rules:
Employees can be on any type of contract. Employers will be able to agree any working arrangements with employees.
Employers can claim the grant for the hours their employees are not working, calculated by reference to their usual hours worked in a claim period. Such calculations will broadly follow the same methodology as currently under the CJRS.
When claiming the CJRS grant for furloughed hours, employers will need to report and claim for a minimum period of 7 consecutive calendar days.
Employers will need to report hours worked and the usual hours an employee would be expected to work in a claim period.
For worked hours, employees will be paid by their employer subject to their employment contract and employers will be responsible for paying the tax and NICs due on those amounts.

What support is being provided and employer costs:

For hours not worked by the employee, the government will pay 80% of wages up to a cap of £2,500. The grant must be paid to the employee in full.
Employers will pay employer NICs and pension contributions, and should continue to pay the employee for hours worked in the normal way.
As with the current CJRS, employers are still able to choose to top up employee wages above the scheme grant at their own expense if they wish.
The Government will confirm shortly when claims can first be made in respect of employee wage costs during November, but there will be no gap in eligibility for support between the previously announced end-date of CJRS and this extension.

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2020-10-31 20:03:23Z
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Will the furlough scheme be extended?: Everything you need to know as lockdown 2 expected - Cambridgeshire Live

The Government's furlough scheme for supporting workers during the COVID-19 pandemic is set to end tomorrow (November 1) after seven months.

And while chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced another stage of measures, the end of the furlough scheme is expected to be a significant moment for many who have relied on it for the last few months.

At the beginning of the pandemic, the Government announced it would take the unprecedented move of providing employees with 80 per cent of their wages while they were unable to work.

However, the furlough scheme has been wound down over the last few months, with the state providing 70 per cent of wages in September and 60 per cent in October.

The latest figures from HMRC have shown 9.6 million jobs were furloughed through the programme.

The ending of the furlough scheme comes amid rumours that Boris Johnson is planning to introduce a second nationwide lockdown in England.

Everything except essential shops and education settings could be closed under the new measures, according to The Times, but no final decisions are believed to have been made. Tougher regional measures are also being considered.

Here is what to expect as the furlough scheme is due to end.

What happens next?

From November 1, workers and businesses will instead turn to the Chancellor’s Job Support Scheme (JSS) for support.

Firms able to stay open but impacted by a slump in demand – such as those in Tier 2 areas – were the first offered support through the JSS.

Staff will have to work 20 per cent of their hours to be eligible. The employer must pay for at least an extra 4 per cent of total wages to cover some hours not worked, with the Government paying another 49 per cent.

Companies forced to close as a result of Tier 3 restrictions will be eligible for more support through the scheme.

Workers will be paid 67 per cent of their wages – up to a maximum of £2,100 a month – through the JSS but must be off for a minimum of seven days to be eligible.

What does it mean for workers?

While millions of claims have been made for furloughed jobs, the number of workers on the scheme has steadily reduced as certain sectors have been able to reopen.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics estimated 7.5 per cent of the workforce was still on furlough in the fortnight to October 18.

Industry groups and trade unions have warned the end of the scheme will result in a raft of job losses, even if significant numbers of staffs are able to move on to the new scheme.

However, workers who move on to the JSS may be better off, with the Government paying 67 per cent of wages rather than the 60 per cent contribution for the week now.

People who do lose their jobs as furlough ends face a tough hiring environment.

LinkedIn data shows job openings are back to pre-pandemic levels, but a surge in jobseeker numbers has formed a difficult situation for those seeking a new role.

Find the latest coronavirus cases in your area:

What does it mean for business owners?

Bosses were positive about the original furlough scheme, which was used by 1.2 million employers, but raised eyebrows when Mr Sunak announced the next layer of support in his winter economic plan.

However, industry groups were more positive when the fuller JSS was announced weeks later after Boris Johnson unveiled the Government’s tiered lockdown programme.

While many firms are still expected to make redundancies, these are likely to be most common among smaller companies, with firms that intend to cut more than 100 roles having to have already given 45 days’ notice on job consultations.

Who will be most affected by the closure of the furlough scheme?

Hospitality firms were particularly reliant on the programme after being forced to close at the start of the pandemic and thousands of staff have remained on furlough as restrictions have weighed on demand.

However, the UK Hospitality trade body, which represents thousands of restaurants, pubs and nightclubs, hailed JSS as “very welcome”.

The arts sector has the highest proportion of workers currently still on furlough, with many venues unable to reopen in accordance with distancing rules.

Travel and retail firms have also heavily relied on furlough, with firms across both areas announcing thousands of redundancies ahead of the closure of the scheme.

Young people have also been particularly impacted by the closure of the programme, with research from the Resolution Foundation showing one in five 18 to 24-year-olds who were furloughed have lost their jobs – with this figure rising to around 40 per cent in Birmingham.

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2020-10-31 15:16:00Z
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Sainsbury’s plots sale of banking arm as near-zero interest rates bite - Sky News

The new chief executive of J Sainsbury is plotting a sale of its banking arm as ultra-low interest rates diminish the prospects of making a meaningful return from the business.

Sky News has learnt that Sainsbury's has begun sounding out potential buyers of the unit, which boasts more than 2m customers across a range of products including mortgages, home insurance and credit cards.

Sources said this weekend that Simon Roberts, who took over as the grocer's CEO earlier this year, had asked UBS, its corporate broker and financial adviser, to advise it on options for Sainsbury's Bank.

The move comes amid a torrid environment for medium-sized banks, with near-zero rates and intense price competition depressing margins and casting doubt over the long-term viability of many standalone lenders.

The possibility of negative rates, which has been flagged by banking regulators in recent weeks, has exacerbated concerns among bank directors about their

Sainsbury's put a deal to sell its £1.9bn mortgage book to Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, on hold after the coronavirus pandemic struck, and has said it will not inject further capital into Sainsbury's Bank.

Mr Roberts may come under pressure to confirm that it is exploring options for the bank when the group reports half-year results next week.

One idea said to be under consideration at the supermarket chain is the sale of a stake in the bank to a larger high street lender, rather than an outright disposal of the business.

It was unclear this weekend whether more radical alternatives, such as closing the banking operations, were being explored.

Sainsbury's took full control of the division in 2013, when it paid £260m to buy a 50% shareholding from joint venture partner Lloyds Banking Group.

The grocer launched its financial services business in 1997, with the promise of targeting customers through data gleaned from customer loyalty schemes stoking expectations that it could become a major profit engine for the group.

Despite taking full ownership of the Nectar loyalty programme, however, that potential has never been fully realised.

Sainsbury's also owns the Argos Financial Services business following its takeover of the general merchandise retailer in 2016.

Tesco and the Co-op Group have also built a presence in the banking market, with the latter's business almost collapsing twice in the last decade.

Britain's biggest retailer, meanwhile, has also pulled out of the mortgage market, selling its £3.8bn book to Lloyds last year.

Last year, Sainsbury's brought in Jim Brown, a heavyweight former Royal Bank of Scotland executive, to run its banking arm, and said it anticipated "no need for further capital injections after £35m in H1 2019/20".

The company also said it would simplify the banking business and transform its cost base, with a target of reducing its cost:income ratio to roughly 50% within five years.

It set a further target of doubling underlying pre-tax profit and returning cash to the parent company by 2025.

Earlier this year, Sainsbury's Bank said that Roger Davis would step down as the bank's chairman.

It has yet to name a successor.

A spokeswoman for Sainsbury's declined to comment on Saturday.

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2020-10-31 13:09:25Z
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Furlough: Pub manager's worry and confusion over pay - BBC News

As manager of the Star Inn in Treos, Vale of Glamorgan, close to the border with Bridgend, it is her job to organise the staff payroll - including working out furlough for the final week of October, and looking at getting in more support from the new scheme.

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2020-10-31 12:04:00Z
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Halloween revellers hit the streets of Newcastle as city remains in Tier 2 lockdown - Daily Mail

They won't let lockdowns stop them partying on Halloween: Streets of Newcastle are filled with people in fancy dress as city remains in Tier 2

Revellers in Halloween fancy dress flocked to bars and packed out streets in Newcastle on Friday night
Part of the North East was thought to be heading for the toughest level of coronavirus restrictions earlier
Drinkers were pictured being arrested while others in fancy dress and Covid-19 face masks posed for selfies

By Joe Davies For Mailonline

Published: 01:47 GMT, 31 October 2020 | Updated: 09:05 GMT, 31 October 2020

Halloween revellers hit the streets of Newcastle on Friday night as the city remained under Tier 2 coronavirus restrictions.

People flocked to bars in the city on the same night it was revealed Boris Johnson would announce a nationwide lockdown next week.

Earlier in the day, MPs in the North East held talks about entering Tier 3 with a minister, Hartlepool MP Mike Hill said the Tees Valley region said.

But talk of harsher restrictions did not stop revellers going out to drink and party in the street in Halloween fancy dress.

Halloween revellers hit the streets of Newcastle on Friday night as the city remained under Tier 2 coronavirus restrictions

Drinkers were pictured being arrested in the street, while others in fancy dress and coronavirus face masks posed for selfies next to police vehicles

Girls in fancy dress on a night out pose for photos in Newcastle on on the same night it was revealed Boris Johnson would announce a nationwide lockdown next week

A girl in Halloween fancy dress is held up by a friend and police officer in Newcastle. Earlier in the day, MPs in the north east held talks about entering Tier 3 with a minister, Hartlepool MP Mike Hill said the Tees Valley region said

Drinkers were pictured being arrested in the street, while others in fancy dress and coronavirus face masks posed for selfies next to police vehicles.

Part of the North East of England was thought to be heading for the toughest level of coronavirus restrictions on Friday.

Hartlepool MP Mike Hill said the Tees Valley region, which also includes Darlington, Middlesbrough, Stockton and Redcar, said talks about entering Tier 3 had been taking place with a minister on Friday.

The Labour MP tweeted: 'Local leaders are thrashing out a package for the Tees Valley Region right now.

A girl wearing a halo and ballerina skirt stands above two revellers dressed as Super Mario and Luigi and one in a Spiderman costume

A young man takes out his phone while talking to two women in Newcastle on Friday night as police watch on in the background

Huge queues for ATMs formed on the streets as revellers packed out Newcastle's bars before the 10pm curfew on Friday night

Revellers enjoy a pre Halloween Friday night out in Newcastle this evening, as the prospect of the city being placed under Tier 3 COVID measures grows stronger with cases rising across the North

Hartlepool MP Mike Hill said the Tees Valley region, which also includes Darlington, Middlesbrough, Stockton and Redcar, said talks about entering Tier 3 had been taking place with a minister on Friday

'MPs will be informed of the outcome later today but we are moving towards Tier 3.'

Redcar and Cleveland Council leader Mary Lanigan, speaking on behalf of the councils, said: 'We are having ongoing discussions with the Government about its intention to take the Tees Valley into Tier Three restrictions.

'Nothing has been agreed and we anticipate further discussions on Monday.

'We will continue to prioritise the health and wellbeing of our residents, supporting businesses and saving jobs as we press for the best possible outcome for the Tees Valley.'

On Thursday evening, Independent elected Mayor of Middlesbrough Andy Preston said NHS capacity to cope with Covid-19 patients was 'disappearing fast' and a crisis lay ahead if no action was taken.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released figures which showed new cases were continuing to rise in the wider North East region, but at a slower rate than elsewhere in the North of England

Large crowds of revellers in fancy dress head home after a night on the town in Newcastle on Friday night

People flocked to bars in the north east city on the same night it was revealed Boris Johnson would announce a nationwide lockdown next week

Two men and three women pose in inmate costumes next to a Northumbria Police vehicle on Friday night in Newcastle

Dr Richard Cree, an intensive care consultant at the James Cook University Hospital in Middlesbrough, has blogged about the pandemic.

He wrote: 'We had not expected that things would be getting this bad this quickly.

'Don't get me wrong, we are all more than able to cope with the current workload but are worried about how bad things might be, come Christmas.

'God only knows what surprises Santa will bring us this year.'

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released figures which showed new cases were continuing to rise in the wider North East region, but at a slower rate than elsewhere in the North of England.

While rates remained high in the North East, the ONS said they have now levelled off and 'there is now a larger gap with the other two northern regions', Yorkshire and the North West.

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2020-10-31 01:47:00Z
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Three new voices at IAG but still just the one message - The Times

Only time will tell whether the autocratic, omnipotent style that Willie Walsh brought to International Consolidated Airlines Group has passed. At the first outing of the company’s leadership since Mr Walsh departed last month, what emerged was, if not a holy trinity, at least a tripartite presentation of the not-always-loved company’s prospects.

Luis Gallego, the new chief executive, was joined by Steve Gunning, 53, the finance director, and by British Airways’ new chief executive Sean Doyle, 49, an internal transfer from Aer Lingus.

While Mr Walsh may have had wingmen present at previous presentations, they didn’t get much of a word in. Yesterday, in contrast, the new cabal each had their say.

Not that there were any apologies for past sins in the way

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2020-10-31 00:01:00Z
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Sunak under pressure to mend UK welfare system as furlough ends - Financial Times

Rishi Sunak is under mounting pressure to repair the UK’s threadbare welfare safety net as the government’s furlough scheme ends, ahead of a winter in which some 6m households will rely on benefits to pay the bills.

The chancellor’s last-minute overhaul of the Job Support Scheme that starts after furlough ends on Saturday will help some of the 2m people who are still benefiting from the initiative. The JSS will now offer a more generous wage subsidy than originally envisaged where employees work at least a fifth of their usual hours.

But unemployment is still likely to rise sharply, and to spread beyond the ranks of low-paid workers hit hardest initially by the pandemic. Sales have dropped close to zero at many businesses, even if they are legally allowed to stay open, while others are preparing for a long-term decline in demand.

Abi Dunn, a Manchester-based recruiter in the hospitality sector, said even businesses that had been expanding until recently were now laying off core staff, with a clear trend in the last two weeks of redundancies among higher-paid employees in sales, innovation and marketing.

Chart showing in the present crisis, people who fall out of work will struggle to find a new job. Transition rates out of and into employment, between February and September (%)

“These are their A teams, they thought these guys will never go . . . they are now having to start letting these people go,” she said, adding that businesses that had fought to remain open, even at a loss, were now “considering closing down, hibernating until they can see a future”.

The online job site Indeed said two-thirds of a million workers had uploaded or updated CVs in the month before furlough ended — and that many were older or more senior, “suggesting that middle management positions are being lost as well as the junior roles dominated by younger workers”.

Those who fall out of work will struggle to find a new job. Research published this week by the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, showed that the rate of job losses in recent months has been comparable to that in past recessions, but hiring has been far more deeply depressed. Furthermore, people losing work in hard-hit sectors tend to look for similar roles rather than job-hunting in areas where there are vacancies, the research found.

“The UK jobs market has traditionally been known for its flexibility, its ability to create jobs . . . We are now seeing that hugely slowed down, if not halted,” Carolyn Fairbairn, the outgoing director-general of the CBI business organisation, said at an online event on Wednesday.

“It’s right that as we move towards a more targeted approach to tackle the virus, our support becomes more targeted too,” Mr Sunak said on Friday, justifying the switch from the furlough scheme to the JSS.

This means that millions of workers facing pay cuts or job losses will rely for all or part of their income this winter on universal credit, a welfare system that remains — even after a recent £20 increase in the basic weekly allowance rate — “one of the weakest out-of-work income protection schemes among advanced economies”, according to Alfie Stirling, chief economist at the New Economics Foundation, a think-tank.

About 5.6m households were receiving universal credit payments or working tax credits by August, 1.6m more than in January. The number is set to rise, with low-paid workers who see their wages fall under the JSS eligible for top-ups under universal credit.

Chart showing people losing their work are not job hunting in sectors where there are vacancies. Various employment sectors shown as job searches (% of respondents looking for a job in each sector, Sep 2020) and vacancies (000s, July-Sep 2020)

Mr Sunak argued this will mean many low-paid workers receive about 90 per cent of their usual net income, even while working 20 per cent of hours.

But analysts said this will be true only for certain types of households, even for those on the JSS. For those who have lost their job, universal credit is relatively generous to low-income families, but on average replaces only about a third of lost income — and as little as a fifth for some single adults.

“Lots of people on UC are not on the JSS . . . it is not a top up, it is everything they will be getting,” Mr Stirling said.

The government has resisted calls from charities and unions to make permanent the £20 uplift to universal credit, which will otherwise end next April. But while ministers can defer this decision to next year, they will need to act sooner to protect some groups from a drop in income.

IPSE, an association representing freelancers and contractors, says hundreds of thousands could suffer a “sudden, drastic and unsupportable financial hit” if the government reinstates the so-called “minimum income floor”, which limits benefits for self-employed people on low incomes.

This was suspended at the start of the pandemic, allowing many self-employed people who did not qualify for other forms of government support to claim universal credit, but the suspension ends on November 12.

Many people who claimed universal credit after the first national lockdown will also be nearing the end of the nine-month grace period after which their benefits could be capped. This policy has long been criticised for penalising the disabled, single parents and families in areas with high housing costs.

Homeowners, who do not qualify for housing allowance under universal credit, could also be vulnerable as this weekend’s deadline to apply for payment holidays passes.

There is ample evidence that many households are suffering severe financial hardship. Local authorities are reporting a jump in requests for council tax relief, and the debt charity Stepchange said this week that more people were approaching it for advice — with a growing share of them out of work and in receipt of universal credit.

Karl Handscomb, a researcher at the Resolution Foundation, said that without changes to the generosity of the system — in particular the minimum income floor and benefits cap — “you’ll see a sizeable minority quite seriously struggling.”

“Our welfare system is based around a dynamic labour market where most people are able to get a job in a reasonably short period of time,” he said. “Once you take that away, it creaks and collapses.”

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2020-10-30 22:30:00Z
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Itil Koko

Sabtu, 31 Oktober 2020

Covid: What will the England lockdown achieve? - BBC News

What is the point?

Will lockdown drive cases down?

Why will lockdown cut infections?

Will lockdown save lives?

Will cases rise when lockdown is lifted?

But it buys time

Lower cases make it easier to control the virus, in theory.

Will all this save Christmas?

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Coronavirus: Furlough scheme in England extended until December at 80% - but critics say move is overdue - Sky News

Nicola Sturgeon welcomes furlough extension as workers to be paid through November - Daily Record

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